# When will the next hurricane form

> Before Dec 1, 2026 leads at 95%, runner-up 94% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nexthurdate
Updated: 2026-08-24T16:20:52.158Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 95%
- Runner-up: Before Oct 15, 2026 at 94%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $824

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 95¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-next-hurricane-form-before-dec-1-202-kalshi-kxnexthurdate-26dec01-26dec01 |
| Before Oct 15, 2026 | 94¢ | +19pp | $250 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-next-hurricane-form-before-oct-15-20-kalshi-kxnexthurdate-26dec01-26oct15 |
| Before Nov 15, 2026 | 89¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-next-hurricane-form-before-nov-15-20-kalshi-kxnexthurdate-26dec01-26nov15 |
| Before Sep 15, 2026 | 80¢ | −1pp | $134 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-next-hurricane-form-before-sep-15-20-kalshi-kxnexthurdate-26dec01-26sep15 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 80¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-next-hurricane-form-before-nov-1-202-kalshi-kxnexthurdate-26dec01-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-next-hurricane-form-before-oct-1-202-kalshi-kxnexthurdate-26dec01-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 25¢ | −2pp | $440 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-next-hurricane-form-before-sep-1-202-kalshi-kxnexthurdate-26dec01-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Oct 15, 2026 | Before Nov 15, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | 13 | 33 | 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | 92 | 35 | 83 |
| 2026-08-20 | 94 | 48 | 83 |
| 2026-08-23 | — | 77 | 85 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | 87 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-17 · Before Sep 15, 2026 −46pp 61→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Before Sep 15, 2026 +44pp 15→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Before Nov 1, 2026 +30pp 24→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −22pp 37→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Before Oct 15, 2026 +22pp 35→57¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets estimate a 68% probability that a hurricane will form before October 1, 2026. This reflects expectations about Atlantic basin activity during the peak portion of hurricane season, which typically runs June through November. The probability is driven by seasonal meteorological patterns, historical frequency of hurricane formation by early October, and current atmospheric conditions. The main factor pushing expectations higher is that we are entering late August, when sea surface temperatures peak and tropical cyclogenesis becomes more common. The biggest near-term catalyst will be the actual track and formation of tropical systems over the next 8-55 days; any observed hurricane formation immediately settles the question, while a prolonged absence of hurricane development would lower the probability. Current trading volume concentrates on the Aug 15 date, suggesting near-term tropical activity is a focal point for market participants.

### Key factors

- Atlantic sea surface temperatures in August-September 2026 and their deviation from historical norms
- Observed formation of tropical depressions or storms between now and October 1, which may or may not intensify to hurricane status
- Position and intensity of African tropical waves, Bermuda high pressure system, and other steering mechanisms affecting Atlantic basin wind shear
- Historical climatology showing hurricane formation rates by specific dates within the 2026 Atlantic season
- Resolution timeline: any confirmed hurricane formation before Oct 1 settles the leading contract at 100%, while the contract expires on Oct 1 if no hurricane has formed

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nexthurdate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nexthurdate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.