# Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 6 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextisraelpm
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:50:58.946Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2045-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $147

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eisenkot | 14¢ | +3pp | $74 | kalshi | /markets/will-gadi-eisenkot-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-i-kalshi-kxnextisraelpm-45jan01-geis |
| Israel Katz | 3¢ | +1pp | $73 | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-katz-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-isr-kalshi-kxnextisraelpm-45jan01-ikat |
| Naftali Bennett | 45¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-naftali-bennett-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-kalshi-kxnextisraelpm-45jan01-nben |
| Yariv Levin | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-yariv-levin-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-isr-kalshi-kxnextisraelpm-45jan01-ylev |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-kalshi-kxnextisraelpm-45jan01-alie |
| Itamar Ben-Gvir | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-itamar-ben-gvir-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-kalshi-kxnextisraelpm-45jan01-iben |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 11 |
| 2026-04-19 | 30 |
| 2026-04-26 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Naftali Bennett +12pp 36→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Israel Katz −7pp 11→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Naftali Bennett +4pp 48→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Naftali Bennett −4pp 49→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Avigdor Lieberman +4pp 1→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that Naftali Bennett becomes Israel's Prime Minister following the next election. Bennett, a former Prime Minister who led a short-lived coalition government until 2022, faces significant political obstacles in returning to office. The probability reflects his current position in Israeli politics—no longer holding the premier role but maintaining a coalition party with parliamentary representation. The main factors driving this relatively low estimate are the fragmented Israeli political landscape and competition from other coalition figures, particularly Avigdor Lieberman who markets show at higher probability. The outcome hinges on the timing and composition of the next election, which would determine coalition possibilities and Bennett's negotiating leverage. Key resolution points include actual election results and subsequent coalition negotiations, which typically occur months after voting.

### Key factors

- Bennett currently leads Yamina party with roughly 6-7 seats in Knesset, lower than competitors like Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu
- His previous coalition collapsed in 2022 after internal divisions, affecting his credibility for future coalition leadership
- Market prices for Bennett show 37¢ on Polymarket, higher than his 14% aggregated Kalshi pricing, indicating disagreement across prediction venues
- The next Israeli election date remains unscheduled; current government stability affects timing and therefore coalition possibilities
- Lieberman and Eizenkot appear higher-probability alternatives in available markets, suggesting voters or analysts favor other coalition partners over Bennett

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextisraelpm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextisraelpm

## License

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