# Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor

> Keith Sonderling leads at 28%, runner-up 7% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextlaborsec
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.994Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: Keith Sonderling at 28%
- Runner-up: Glenn Youngkin at 7%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $859

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Sonderling | 28¢ | +1pp | $857 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-labor-keith-s-kalshi-kxnextlaborsec-29-kson |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-labor-glenn-y-kalshi-kxnextlaborsec-29-gyou |
| Andrew Puzder | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-labor-andrew-kalshi-kxnextlaborsec-29-apuz |
| Patrick Pizzella | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-labor-patrick-kalshi-kxnextlaborsec-29-ppiz |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Keith Sonderling | Glenn Youngkin | Andrew Puzder |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | 18 | — | 9 |
| 2026-04-21 | 23 | 6 | 14 |
| 2026-04-24 | 37 | 2 | 5 |
| 2026-04-25 | 51 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 38 | 6 | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 40 | 5 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 40 | — | 3 |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 | — | — |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a specific individual will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor, currently priced at 38%. The outcome depends on Trump's nomination decisions and Senate confirmation, with the identity of the leading candidate and any competing candidates materially affecting the probability. The market is concentrated around one frontrunner, while the runner-up sits at just 5%, indicating significant consensus. The main drivers would be changes in Trump's stated preferences, withdrawal of candidates, or shifting political dynamics that alter confirmation prospects. The resolution will occur when Trump makes an official nomination announcement and the Senate votes on confirmation, likely occurring in the coming months depending on personnel timelines and legislative schedules.

### Key factors

- The leading contract holds approximately 7.6x the probability of the runner-up contract (38% vs 5%), suggesting strong market consensus around one candidate rather than uncertainty distributed across multiple contenders
- Trading volume on the Attorney General contracts ($16k-$4k daily) substantially exceeds Secretary of Labor volume, indicating less market liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads affecting price accuracy
- No specific announcement date or nomination timeline is publicly confirmed, leaving the exact resolution timeframe uncertain and potentially extending over several months
- The multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means the 38% reflects the combined likelihood that this specific individual both receives nomination and passes Senate confirmation
- Market prices reflect December 2024-May 2026 information; any statements Trump has made about labor policy preferences or personnel considerations would directly impact probability movement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextlaborsec
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextlaborsec
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.