# Will Emerson Bartolome win ‘Next Level Chef’ Season 5

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 9 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextlevelchef
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.982Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darian Bryan | 89¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-darian-bryan-win-next-level-chef-season-5-dar-kalshi-kxnextlevelchef-26dec31-dar |
| Connor Caine | 6¢ | +1pp | $294 | kalshi | /markets/will-connor-caine-win-next-level-chef-season-5-con-kalshi-kxnextlevelchef-26dec31-con |
| Cole Lawson | 4¢ | −1pp | $127 | kalshi | /markets/will-cole-lawson-win-next-level-chef-season-5-cole-kalshi-kxnextlevelchef-26dec31-col |
| Gabrielle Coniglio | 4¢ | −1pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-gabrielle-coniglio-win-next-level-chef-season-kalshi-kxnextlevelchef-26dec31-gab |
| Danielle Kartes | 4¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-danielle-kartes-win-next-level-chef-season-5-kalshi-kxnextlevelchef-26dec31-dan |
| Elise Jesse | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elise-jesse-win-next-level-chef-season-5-elis-kalshi-kxnextlevelchef-26dec31-eli |
| Emerson Bartolome | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emerson-bartolome-win-next-level-chef-season-kalshi-kxnextlevelchef-26dec31-eme |
| Mareya Ibrahim-Jones | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mareya-ibrahim-jones-win-next-level-chef-seas-kalshi-kxnextlevelchef-26dec31-mar |
| Matt Starcher | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-starcher-win-next-level-chef-season-5-ma-kalshi-kxnextlevelchef-26dec31-mat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 80 |
| 2026-04-25 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 |
| 2026-05-09 | 91 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Connor Caine −6pp 10→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Darian Bryan +3pp 87→90¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 13% probability that Emerson Bartolome will win Next Level Chef Season 5. The relatively low odds suggest the market views Bartolome as a competitive but not favored contestant among the season's participants. The probability reflects uncertainty about contestant performance, judge preferences, and elimination dynamics across the season's full run. Resolution depends on the show's broadcast schedule and final episode outcome. Key drivers include Bartolome's performance in early episodes, strength of competing chefs, and judge feedback patterns that emerge as the season progresses.

### Key factors

- Early episode performance and elimination results will provide direct evidence of Bartolome's competitive position relative to other contestants
- Judge commentary and scoring patterns in broadcast episodes will signal confidence levels in Bartolome's technical skills and creativity
- Contestant eliminations and advancement rounds will reduce uncertainty by narrowing the final pool from which a winner can emerge
- Prior performance data on similar contestants or previous season winners may inform expectations about Bartolome's trajectory
- The show's air date schedule determines when market resolution occurs and how much information becomes available before final episodes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextlevelchef
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextlevelchef

## License

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