# Who will be the next manager of Chelsea

> Xabi Alonso leads at 43%, runner-up 22% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextmanagerepl
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.640Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-08

## Headline

- Leader: Xabi Alonso at 43%
- Runner-up: Andoni Iraola at 22%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $447

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xabi Alonso | 43¢ | +1pp | $216 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-xabi-alons-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-xalo |
| Andoni Iraola | 22¢ | −1pp | $231 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-andoni-ira-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-aira |
| Diego Simeone | 13¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-diego-sime-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-dsim |
| Marco Silva | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-marco-silv-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-msil |
| Oliver Glasner | 9¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-oliver-gla-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-ogla |
| Filipe Luis | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-filipe-lui-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-flui |
| Julian Nagelsmann | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-julian-nag-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-jnag |
| Frank Lampard | 7¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-frank-lamp-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-flam |
| Cesc Fabregas | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-cesc-fabre-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-cfab |
| Enzo Maresca | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-enzo-mares-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-emar |
| Xavi Hernandez | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-chelsea-xavi-herna-kalshi-kxnextmanagerepl-26cfc-xher |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Xabi Alonso | Andoni Iraola | Diego Simeone |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | — | 28 | — |
| 2026-04-23 | — | 31 | 3 |
| 2026-04-24 | 3 | 27 | 7 |
| 2026-04-25 | 3 | 23 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 39 | 25 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 40 | — | — |
| 2026-05-09 | 43 | 22 | — |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Xabi Alonso −17pp 40→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Xabi Alonso +11pp 31→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Xabi Alonso +8pp 23→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Marco Silva −4pp 13→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Cesc Fabregas +3pp 1→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Andoni Iraola is currently the leading candidate to become Chelsea's next manager with a 24% implied probability, meaning bettors estimate roughly a one-in-four chance he fills the role. This reflects the multi-candidate nature of managerial transitions, where multiple qualified candidates typically compete for high-profile positions. The probability would rise if Iraola moves closer to formal negotiations with Chelsea or if competing candidates are ruled out through appointment elsewhere. It would fall if Chelsea publicly pursues alternative candidates or if Iraola secures his position at a current club long-term. The key catalyst remains Chelsea's decision timeline—whether the club accelerates a managerial search immediately or delays announcement, which would resolve uncertainty and consolidate probability mass around the eventual appointment.

### Key factors

- Iraola's current employment status and contractual flexibility with his existing club
- Number and caliber of competing candidates still in active consideration for the role
- Public statements or reporting from Chelsea leadership regarding managerial search timeline and priorities
- Track record of other manager-to-Chelsea transitions and typical decision velocity for the club
- Whether other top clubs in Europe make competing managerial appointments, reducing the candidate pool

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextmanagerepl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextmanagerepl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.