# Who will be the next Manager of the Boston Red Sox

> Chad Tracy leads at 43%, runner-up 22% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextmanagermlb
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.249Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Chad Tracy at 43%
- Runner-up: Don Mattingly at 22%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Tracy | 43¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-the-boston-red-sox-kalshi-kxnextmanagermlb-bos26-ctra |
| Don Mattingly | 22¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-the-philadelphia-p-kalshi-kxnextmanagermlb-phi26-dmat |
| Alex Cora | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-the-philadelphia-p-kalshi-kxnextmanagermlb-phi26-acor |
| Jason Varitek | 4¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-the-boston-red-sox-kalshi-kxnextmanagermlb-bos26-jvar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chad Tracy | Don Mattingly | Alex Cora |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 36 | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 45 | 22 | 5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 44 | 20 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | — | 9 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 22 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 43 | 24 | 13 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 22 | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Alex Cora +3pp 9→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Chad Tracy is priced at 43% as the next manager of the Boston Red Sox, reflecting that traders view him as the most likely candidate but not the consensus favorite. The Red Sox managerial job becomes available when the current manager is replaced, either through voluntary resignation or dismissal—a decision ultimately controlled by Red Sox management. The probability reflects market participants' assessment of Tracy's likelihood relative to other candidates, including Jason Varitek (6¢) and Andrew Bailey (11¢). Key factors driving the price include Tracy's managerial experience, his relationship with Red Sox ownership and front office, recent team performance and organizational direction, and whether competing candidates receive endorsement or interviews. The resolution date is contingent on when Red Sox ownership formally announces a new manager, which could occur immediately or extend across the offseason depending on the timing of the current manager's departure and the organization's decision-making process.

### Key factors

- Chad Tracy's prior managerial experience and track record in Major League Baseball or affiliated organizations
- Current Red Sox managerial status and stated timeline for any potential transition or replacement
- Public reporting on which candidates have been interviewed, endorsed, or are actively pursuing the position
- Relative experience and public visibility of competing candidates like Varitek and Bailey in managerial roles
- Red Sox organizational structure and decision-making authority regarding manager selection

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextmanagermlb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextmanagermlb

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.