# Who will be the next Head Coach of the Milwaukee

> Steve Kerr / No new coach leads at 26%, runner-up 24% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextnbacoach
Updated: 2026-05-04T02:35:53.115Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-27

## Headline

- Leader: Steve Kerr / No new coach at 26%
- Runner-up: Tiago Splitter at 24%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Kerr / No new coach | 26¢ | −5pp | $960 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-the-golden-stat-kalshi-kxnextnbacoach-gs26-sker |
| Tiago Splitter | 24¢ | +6pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-the-portland-pr-kalshi-kxnextnbacoach-por26-tspl |
| James Borrego | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-the-new-orleans-kalshi-kxnextnbacoach-nop26-jbor |
| Darvin Ham | 13¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-the-new-orleans-kalshi-kxnextnbacoach-nop26-dham |
| Jon Scheyer | 9¢ | −5pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-the-chicago-jon-kalshi-kxnextnbacoach-chi26-jsch |
| Sean Sweeney | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-the-portland-pr-kalshi-kxnextnbacoach-por26-sswe |
| Tom Thibodeau | 4¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-the-chicago-tom-kalshi-kxnextnbacoach-chi26-tthi |
| Jamahl Mosley | 3¢ | +2pp | $303 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-head-coach-of-the-new-orleans-kalshi-kxnextnbacoach-nop26-jmos |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Steve Kerr / No new coach | Tiago Splitter | James Borrego |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | — | — | 46 |
| 2026-04-20 | — | — | 36 |
| 2026-04-21 | 15 | — | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 18 | — | 18 |
| 2026-04-30 | 21 | 15 | 16 |
| 2026-05-01 | 27 | 15 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 32 | 18 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 27 | 24 | — |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · James Borrego −10pp 28→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Steve Kerr / No new coach +6pp 21→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Jon Scheyer +6pp 9→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tiago Splitter +6pp 18→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Steve Kerr / No new coach +5pp 18→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market estimates a 15% probability that a specific candidate will become the Milwaukee Bucks' next head coach. This reflects relatively low odds compared to alternatives in the multi-outcome contract, suggesting the leading candidate faces meaningful competition from other contenders. The probability would move based on reporting about the team's coaching search timeline and candidate availability. The market would face significant pressure if the Bucks officially announce their search is underway or if key candidates publicly commit to other teams, either raising or lowering the leader's odds depending on what emerges. The main catalyst is any official team announcement regarding their coaching process or timeline.

### Key factors

- Current front-runner priced at 15% with runner-up at 13%, indicating a competitive field without a dominant favorite
- Milwaukee's current coaching situation and stated timeline for any replacement decision, if applicable
- Availability and interest level of top NBA coaching candidates, including whether leading contenders accept other positions
- Recent playoff performance or organizational decisions that might accelerate or delay a coaching change
- Public statements from Milwaukee ownership or front office about their coaching preferences or search status

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextnbacoach
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextnbacoach

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.