# Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence

> Aaron Lukas leads at 30%, runner-up 13% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextodni
Updated: 2026-05-24T22:20:07.118Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: Aaron Lukas at 30%
- Runner-up: Devin Nunes at 13%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Lukas | 30¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-director-of-national-intel-kalshi-kxnextodni-29-aluk |
| Devin Nunes | 13¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-director-of-national-intel-kalshi-kxnextodni-29-dnun |
| Michael Ellis | 10¢ | +11pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-director-of-national-intel-kalshi-kxnextodni-29-mell |
| Mike Flynn | 7¢ | +2pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-director-of-national-intel-kalshi-kxnextodni-29-mfly |
| Elise Stefanik | 6¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-director-of-national-intel-kalshi-kxnextodni-29-este |
| Richard Grenell | 5¢ | −1pp | $224 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-director-of-national-intel-kalshi-kxnextodni-29-rgre |
| John Ratcliffe | 3¢ | ±0 | $446 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-director-of-national-intel-kalshi-kxnextodni-29-jrat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aaron Lukas | Devin Nunes | Michael Ellis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 28 | 27 | 3 |
| 2026-05-23 | 29 | 18 | 14 |
| 2026-05-24 | 31 | 15 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · Michael Ellis +11pp 3→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Devin Nunes −9pp 27→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Elise Stefanik −5pp 19→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Devin Nunes −3pp 18→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Richard Grenell −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Aaron Lukas currently leads the field at 29% probability to become Trump's next Director of National Intelligence, though the market is fragmented across seven candidates with no overwhelming favorite. Devin Nunes trails closely at 26%, suggesting uncertainty about Trump's intelligence leadership priorities. The outcome depends on Trump's personnel philosophy—whether he prioritizes loyalists with existing relationships like Nunes and Mike Flynn, or prefers candidates with intelligence community credentials like Lukas or Elise Stefanik at 18%. Ongoing developments in intelligence policy, classified information handling debates, and Trump's stated security priorities will likely influence these probabilities. Resolution timing remains uncertain, as director appointments typically occur during transition periods or vacancies, making this an extended-duration event where trader conviction remains moderate given the wide distribution of odds across candidates.

### Key factors

- Aaron Lukas and Devin Nunes are separated by only 2 percentage points, indicating traders view them as genuinely competitive rather than one being dominant
- Combined probability of all seven candidates totals 100%, with no single candidate commanding majority support, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the selection process
- Kalshi volume is concentrated in top three candidates (Lukas, Nunes, Stefanik), suggesting lower conviction on remaining options
- The 11-point gap between the leader (29%) and runner-up (22%) is narrow relative to winner-take-all stakes, indicating high residual uncertainty
- Mike Flynn and Amaryllis Fox Kennedy combined represent only 11% probability despite their political profiles, suggesting market skepticism about their likelihood

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextodni
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextodni
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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