# Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextromaniapm
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.108Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2045-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $791

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sorin Grindeanu | 8¢ | — | $446 | kalshi | /markets/will-sorin-grindeanu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-sgri |
| Marcel Ciolacu | 4¢ | — | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-marcel-ciolacu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-mcio |
| Cătălin Predoiu | 6¢ | — | $145 | kalshi | /markets/will-ctlin-predoiu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-r-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-cpre |
| Mugur Isărescu | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mugur-isrescu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-r-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-misa |
| Mircea Geoană | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mircea-geoan-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ro-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-mgeo |
| Anca Dragu | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anca-dragu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-roma-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-adra |
| Lucian Isar | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lucian-isar-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-rom-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-lisa |
| George Simion | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-simion-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-r-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-gsim |
| Nicolae Ciucă | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicolae-ciuc-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ro-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-nciu |
| Alexandru Rafila | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexandru-rafila-be-the-next-prime-minister-o-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-araf |
| Sebastian Burduja | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sebastian-burduja-be-the-next-prime-minister-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-sbur |
| Ionuț Dumitru | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ionu-dumitru-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ro-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-idum |
| Elena Lasconi | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elena-lasconi-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-r-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-elas |
| Cătălin Drulă | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ctlin-drul-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-roma-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-cdru |
| Vasile Dîncu | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vasile-dncu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-rom-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-vdin |
| Dacian Cioloș | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dacian-ciolo-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ro-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-dcio |
| Emil Boc | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emil-boc-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romani-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-eboc |
| Dominic Fritz | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dominic-fritz-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-r-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-dfri |
| Raluca Turcan | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-raluca-turcan-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-r-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-rtur |
| Lucian Croitoru | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lucian-croitoru-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-kalshi-kxnextromaniapm-45jan01-lcro |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 4 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextromaniapm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextromaniapm

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.