# Will Darline Graham Nordone be the next the Class 2 U.S. Senator from South Carolina before Jan 4, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 10 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextscsenator
Updated: 2026-07-13T21:20:51.334Z
Category: politics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-11

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $66K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham Nordone | 97¢ | — | $66K | kalshi | /markets/will-darline-graham-nordone-be-the-next-the-class-kalshi-kxnextscsenator-27jan04-dnor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 58 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 15% probability that Darline Graham Nordone will be elected as South Carolina's Class 2 U.S. Senator by January 4, 2027. The relatively low probability reflects that she faces significant competition in what appears to be an open-seat race. The 2026 general election in November will be the primary determinant, with voter preferences, candidate resources, and turnout patterns shaping the outcome. Her current market price of 5 cents, combined with minimal trading volume ($16 in 24 hours), suggests limited market conviction compared to other candidates like Pamela Evette (45 cents). The resolution will occur on January 4, 2027, when either she or another candidate takes the Senate seat.

### Key factors

- Pamela Evette holds a substantially higher implied probability (45%) as a leading Republican candidate, indicating market participants view her as the frontrunner
- Darline Graham Nordone's contract shows minimal liquidity ($16 daily volume) compared to other candidates, suggesting low trader confidence in her candidacy
- The November 2026 general election serves as the definitive catalyst—voter turnout and preference distribution will directly determine whether she wins the seat
- Nikki Haley, despite being at 6 cents, retains a historical political profile that may attract market attention despite lower current probability
- South Carolina's voting patterns and demographic composition will influence both primary (if applicable) and general election dynamics in this open-seat race

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextscsenator
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextscsenator
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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