# Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextspeaker
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.109Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2031-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $29

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries | 72¢ | −1pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-hakeem-jeffries-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-ho-kalshi-kxnextspeaker-31-hjef |
| Jim Jordan | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jim-jordan-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-j-kalshi-kxnextspeaker-31-jjor |
| Steve Scalise | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-scalise-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-hous-kalshi-kxnextspeaker-31-ssca |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 31 |
| 2026-06-12 | 74 |
| 2026-06-19 | 75 |
| 2026-06-26 | 72 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 31% probability reflects the likelihood that Steve Scalise becomes Speaker of the House in the current congressional term. Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, previously served as House Majority Leader before health issues led to his resignation in 2024. The current probability balances his established leadership credentials and relationships within Republican caucuses against significant uncertainty about whether a Speaker vacancy will occur and whether he would be the consensus choice among Republicans if one did. Factors affecting this estimate include shifts in Republican party dynamics, potential challenges to current leadership, and Scalise's health status and future political ambitions. The most immediate catalyst would be any formal announcement regarding current Speaker tenure or Scalise's stated intentions regarding a leadership bid.

### Key factors

- Steve Scalise's current political status and whether he maintains active involvement in House leadership decisions following his 2024 resignation
- Current Speaker's political stability and the probability of a Speaker vacancy occurring before the next congressional session
- Consensus among House Republican members—Scalise would need broad support from both centrist and conservative factions to secure the position
- Competing candidates and their relative strength in a potential Speaker election, which would directly impact Scalise's path to the role
- Scalise's public statements or actions indicating whether he is actively pursuing or has ruled out a Speaker candidacy

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextspeaker
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextspeaker

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.