# Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State

> No other person leads at 53%, runner-up 15% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextstate
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.400Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: No other person at 53%
- Runner-up: Ric Grenell at 15%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No other person | 53¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-state-no-othe-kalshi-kxnextstate-29-none |
| Ric Grenell | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-state-ric-gre-kalshi-kxnextstate-29-rgre |
| Robert O'Brien | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-state-robert-kalshi-kxnextstate-29-robr |
| Bill Hagerty | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-trumps-next-secretary-of-state-bill-ha-kalshi-kxnextstate-29-bhag |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No other person | Ric Grenell |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 53 | 15 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 53% probability indicates that markets currently assess it as more likely than not that Trump's next Secretary of State will be someone other than the four primary candidates represented in the contract set. The market reflects uncertainty about whether Trump will select from a known group of contenders or choose someone outside this predetermined pool. Key drivers of this probability include the lack of clear public signals about Trump's preference, the relatively low trading volumes suggesting moderate participant confidence, and the spread of remaining probability across competing candidates. The main resolution catalyst would be Trump's official announcement of his cabinet appointment, which typically occurs in the transition period following a confirmed election result.

### Key factors

- The leading contract (KXNEXTSTATE-29-NONE at 53%) trades substantially higher than any individual named candidate, suggesting material uncertainty about whether the Secretary of State will come from the identified pool
- Trading volume remains modest ($16K-$24K across top contracts in 24 hours), indicating this market has not attracted consensus opinion or heavy institutional participation
- Related cabinet positions show clearer frontrunners—the Attorney General market concentrates 64% on Todd Blanche—suggesting the Secretary of State selection is either genuinely more contested or less publicly telegraphed
- The contract structure as a four-outcome winner-take-all creates mechanical pressure toward 'none of the above' if no single named candidate achieves clear preference clarity
- Cabinet announcement timing depends on electoral confirmation status and transition logistics, introducing timing uncertainty that could extend resolution well beyond initial expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextstate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextstate
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.