# What will be Aroldis Chapman's next team

> Minnesota leads at 31%, runner-up 25% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextteammlb
Updated: 2026-06-28T21:20:49.718Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-25

## Headline

- Leader: Minnesota at 31%
- Runner-up: Los Angeles D at 25%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 31¢ | −1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-joe-ryans-next-team-minnesota-kalshi-kxnextteammlb-27jryan-min |
| Los Angeles D | 25¢ | +1pp | $384 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-tarik-skubals-next-team-los-angeles-d-kalshi-kxnextteammlb-27tskubal-lad |
| Milwaukee | 11¢ | +2pp | $941 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-tarik-skubals-next-team-milwaukee-kalshi-kxnextteammlb-27tskubal-mil |
| New York Y | 8¢ | −2pp | $166 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-tarik-skubals-next-team-new-york-y-kalshi-kxnextteammlb-27tskubal-nyy |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Minnesota | Los Angeles D | Milwaukee |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 38 | 13 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | — | 25 | 8 |
| 2026-06-13 | — | 28 | 18 |
| 2026-06-14 | — | — | 19 |
| 2026-06-17 | 49 | 26 | 18 |
| 2026-06-21 | 47 | 29 | 9 |
| 2026-06-27 | 27 | 25 | 9 |
| 2026-06-28 | — | — | 11 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Minnesota −22pp 48→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Los Angeles D −9pp 24→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Los Angeles D +9pp 15→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Milwaukee −8pp 17→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Minnesota +7pp 40→47¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents traders' estimate that Seattle will be Aroldis Chapman's next team, currently at 5% probability. Chapman, the veteran left-handed reliever, remains free to sign with any MLB franchise. The low probability reflects either limited market interest, competing offers from other teams, or Chapman's selective preferences regarding destination. Key drivers moving this probability up would include public reports of Seattle's negotiating interest or Chapman's stated preference for the Pacific Northwest. Movement downward could result from Chapman signing elsewhere or announcing intentions to join a different organization. The primary uncertainty resolver will be Chapman's actual signing announcement, which typically occurs during the offseason or early spring training period, though timing remains unpredictable. Until that point, market pricing reflects the perceived likelihood relative to other destination outcomes across all available contracting combinations.

### Key factors

- Chapman's current free-agent status and active market interest from multiple teams
- Historical patterns of Chapman's team choices and any publicly reported preference signals
- Competitive offers from other franchises and their relative probability weightings
- Timing of free-agent signings, which typically occur in waves rather than predictably
- Market volume and contract activity on this specific outcome relative to other player destinations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextteammlb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextteammlb

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.