# What will be Giannis Antetokounmpo's next team

> Stays with Golden State or Retires leads at 88%, runner-up 87% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextteamnba
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.495Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-23

## Headline

- Leader: Stays with Golden State or Retires at 88%
- Runner-up: Stays with Boston or Retires at 87%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stays with Golden State or Retires | 88¢ | +3pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-steph-currys-next-team-stays-with-gol-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26scur-gsw |
| Stays with Boston or Retires | 87¢ | +8pp | $297 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-jayson-tatums-next-team-stays-with-bo-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26jtatum0-bos |
| Stays with Philadelphia or Retires | 72¢ | +3pp | $528 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-joel-embiids-next-team-stays-with-phi-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26jembiid21-phi |
| Stays with Los Angeles L or Retires | 52¢ | +1pp | $257 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-lebron-jamess-next-team-stays-with-lo-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26ljam-lal |
| Stays with Golden State or Retires | 51¢ | +5pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-draymond-greens-next-team-stays-with-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26dgre-gsw |
| Stays with Boston or Retires | 44¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-jaylen-browns-next-team-stays-with-bo-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26jbrown7-bos |
| Stays with Milwaukee or Retires | 26¢ | −2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team-stay-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26gant-mil |
| Boston | 23¢ | +7pp | $412 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team-bost-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26gant-bos |
| Cleveland | 23¢ | −1pp | $381 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-lebron-jamess-next-team-cleveland-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26ljam-cle |
| Phoenix | 15¢ | −6pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team-phoe-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26gant-phx |
| Milwaukee | 13¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-jaylen-browns-next-team-milwaukee-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26jbrown7-mil |
| New York | 11¢ | — | $132 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-jaylen-browns-next-team-new-york-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26jbrown7-nyk |
| Portland | 10¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team-port-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26gant-por |
| New York | 10¢ | −4pp | $536 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team-new-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26gant-nyk |
| Detroit | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-draymond-greens-next-team-detroit-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26dgre-det |
| Atlanta | 8¢ | +1pp | $901 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-jaylen-browns-next-team-atlanta-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26jbrown7-atl |
| Cleveland | 4¢ | +1pp | $169 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team-clev-kalshi-kxnextteamnba-26gant-cle |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Stays with Golden State or Retires | Stays with Boston or Retires | Stays with Philadelphia or Retires |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 55 | — | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 83 | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | — | — | 66 |
| 2026-05-01 | 91 | — | 67 |
| 2026-05-02 | 89 | — | 69 |
| 2026-05-06 | 89 | 67 | 72 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 75 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Boston +17pp 6→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Phoenix +9pp 2→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Stays with Boston or Retires +8pp 67→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Boston +7pp 17→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Stays with Boston or Retires −7pp 57→50¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that Giannis Antetokounmpo will remain with the Milwaukee Bucks or retire rather than join another NBA team. At 31 cents, the market suggests roughly a 31% probability of the alternative outcomes—namely that he signs with a different franchise. The current valuation reflects Giannis's long-standing tenure with Milwaukee and the Bucks' competitive positioning, though it incorporates uncertainty about potential roster changes, management decisions, or unforeseen circumstances that could prompt a move. The main factors influencing this probability are his contract status, the team's competitive trajectory in coming seasons, and any public statements from the player or organization about future direction. The 2026 NBA offseason and any trades or free-agent signings involving Giannis or the Bucks would likely shift market sentiment substantially, as would significant changes to the roster around him.

### Key factors

- Giannis's current contract terms and whether Milwaukee has committed to competing around him through 2026-2027 and beyond
- The Bucks' playoff performance and competitive outlook, which directly influences retention likelihood versus trade or departure
- Any public statements from Giannis, his representation, or the Bucks organization regarding long-term direction and team-building plans
- Competing teams' salary-cap flexibility and reported interest in acquiring him, which would affect realistic probability of alternatives
- Major roster moves or coaching changes by the Bucks that could alter the competitive environment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextteamnba
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextteamnba

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.