# Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 4 contracts — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextukpm
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:09.680Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Miliband | 13¢ | −5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-miliband-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-uni-kalshi-kxnextukpm-30-emil |
| Andy Burnham | 68¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-andy-burnham-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-un-kalshi-kxnextukpm-30-abur |
| Wes Streeting | 3¢ | −1pp | $144 | kalshi | /markets/will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-u-kalshi-kxnextukpm-30-ws |
| Angela Rayner | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-u-kalshi-kxnextukpm-30-ar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 12 |
| 2026-05-25 | 9 |
| 2026-06-01 | 10 |
| 2026-06-06 | 40 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Ed Miliband −5pp 16→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Andy Burnham +4pp 62→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Ed Miliband −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the current market estimate that Yvette Cooper will become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. At 11%, traders are pricing her as a significantly lower probability candidate compared to other potential successors. The assessment reflects factors including her current political standing within the Labour party, the timing and circumstances under which the next transition might occur, and historical patterns of UK leadership succession. The probability would move higher if she gained additional senior roles or demonstrated increased party support, or lower if other candidates consolidated backing or she faced political setbacks. The resolution of this question depends substantially on when the next Prime Ministerial transition occurs and the competitive dynamics among potential Labour successors, which remains uncertain given the current political cycle.

### Key factors

- Labour party internal positioning and whether Cooper maintains or expands her role as a potential successor to Keir Starmer
- Overall viability of Labour remaining in power through the next general election, which affects the pool of potential Prime Ministers
- Comparison to competing candidates' market probabilities and their relative backing from party members and MPs
- Track record and public polling of other senior Labour figures who might be considered for the role
- Timing of the next general election or unexpected circumstances that might trigger an earlier leadership transition

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nextukpm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nextukpm

## License

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