# Nexus FDV above ___ one day after launch — $100M

> $100M leads at 78%, runner-up 67% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nexus-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.084Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $100M at 78%
- Runner-up: $200M at 67%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 78¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nexus-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xc88b7a1bdd9824f94bf4b425b69557ab9aa468f1959302a8b73de3e835d06ff5 |
| $200M | 67¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nexus-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x36f4d1baa9f6d28936b768ead23cb4fb146f82e3f6efec19b771905e8c3a9987 |
| $300M | 65¢ | +20pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nexus-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x60723981d8d9aa01e239ede9e83ca833eeca564cc73023e38af3a2e7872fcd2b |
| $500M | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nexus-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x7887d9f46ddc07ce57a9070509a8dec881b6efc1211303c3fa18eb4c3729d9d0 |
| $800M | 16¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nexus-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0xc8ffdf3d1a06c14514cfaddb83c7827cc8df40bbf2d9ccf50eebac27c815dec5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $100M | $200M | $300M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 36 | 17 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 61 | 40 | 48 |
| 2026-05-02 | 64 | 51 | 36 |
| 2026-05-08 | 58 | 70 | 68 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · $300M +20pp 48→68¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $100M −14pp 63→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $300M +13pp 35→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $100M −9pp 73→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · $200M +9pp 61→70¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates the probability that a protocol's fully diluted valuation will exceed $100 million within one day of its launch. The 94% probability reflects high confidence in this outcome, though it's worth noting this represents a specific contract among six related options with varying valuations ($50M to $1B). The probability is driven primarily by two factors: comparable project launches that achieved similar or higher valuations quickly, and the apparent demand signal reflected in the market's willingness to price this scenario so high. The key uncertainty centers on actual launch execution—whether the protocol delivers on its technical roadmap and whether market conditions remain favorable through the launch date. The resolution event is binary and deterministic: the protocol's FDV measurement one day post-launch will either exceed or fall short of $100M, making this a calendar-dependent outcome that becomes clear on a specific date rather than through gradual information accumulation.

### Key factors

- Historical comparable launches: Recent protocol launches in similar categories have achieved $100M+ FDVs within 24 hours, providing a data anchor for this projection
- Minimum valuation threshold: The $100M threshold is relatively modest compared to other contracts in this market (up to $1B), suggesting most uncertainty lies above this level rather than below
- Launch date timing and market conditions: Protocol viability depends on execution at a time when broader crypto market sentiment supports new token valuations
- Contract volume distribution: The $50M contract at 94¢ and $100M contract at 89¢ show narrow probability separation, indicating consensus that the protocol will likely clear both thresholds
- No scheduled delays announced: Absence of public delays or technical setbacks as of the current date supports the baseline probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nexus-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nexus-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.