# Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 1 contract — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neymar-play-fifa-world-cup
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:56.578Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-19

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 40¢ | +2pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/will-neymar-play-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-polymarket-0xb60c044bba6f7958768691345df1e102448a5b7ef16e4a08879bb10483fb4567 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 30 |
| 2026-04-19 | 39 |
| 2026-04-26 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? +4pp 39→43¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates whether Neymar will participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America. At 43%, the market reflects meaningful uncertainty about his availability by that date. Neymar's inclusion depends on his fitness level, injury status, and performance over the next two years, as well as his club situation and international team selection. His age (34 by 2026) and recent injury history will be primary considerations for Brazil's coaching staff. The tournament itself begins in June 2026, with squad announcements typically occurring one to two months prior. Key indicators will include his playing time and injury-free periods during the 2025-2026 club season, his performance in qualifying matches during 2025-2026, and official statements from Brazil's federation regarding their squad planning.

### Key factors

- Neymar's injury history and current physical condition determine availability; sustained fitness during 2025-2026 would support participation
- His age at tournament time (34 years) and recent recovery timelines suggest Brazil may prioritize younger alternatives for squad spots
- Playing time and form at his club during the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 seasons will signal whether he remains in contention for selection
- Brazil's qualifying campaign performance and interim management decisions will shape squad composition priorities ahead of June 2026
- The timing of squad announcements (typically April-May 2026) creates a defined resolution point with limited remaining uncertainty

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neymar-play-fifa-world-cup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=neymar-play-fifa-world-cup

## License

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