# Will Neymar play in the World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 90% across 1 contract — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neymar-play-world-cup
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.267Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-19

## Headline

- Probability: 90% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $19K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | 90¢ | +1pp | $19K | polymarket | /markets/will-neymar-play-in-the-world-cup-polymarket-0xb60c044bba6f7958768691345df1e102448a5b7ef16e4a08879bb10483fb4567 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 44 |
| 2026-05-25 | 90 |
| 2026-06-01 | 89 |
| 2026-06-06 | 90 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 81% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Neymar will be included in Brazil's roster for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The estimate balances Neymar's status as a star player against injury concerns and competition for limited squad spots. His fitness level and performance for his club leading up to the tournament represent the primary factors moving this probability. The squad announcement by Brazil's coach—typically occurring in the weeks before the tournament—will be the decisive moment that resolves this contract, though signs of injury or reduced playing time beforehand could shift expectations significantly earlier.

### Key factors

- Neymar's injury history and current physical condition, which directly affects his availability and selection likelihood
- His club performance and playing time during the 2025-2026 season, which coaches typically use as primary selection criteria
- Brazil's midfield and attacking depth, determining whether squad slots prioritize experience versus emerging talent
- Official squad announcement by Brazil's coach in late 2026, which definitively settles the outcome
- Any significant injury occurrence in the months immediately preceding the World Cup selection

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/neymar-play-world-cup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=neymar-play-world-cup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.