# Will Los Angeles C be the AFC 1 Seed

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 19 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfl1seed
Updated: 2026-06-26T11:20:49.066Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-18

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $97

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 11¢ | +4pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-be-the-afc-1-seed-houston-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-hou |
| Kansas City | 10¢ | +3pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-be-the-afc-1-seed-kansas-city-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-kc |
| Seattle | 16¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-be-the-nfc-1-seed-seattle-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-nfc26-sea |
| Baltimore | 14¢ | +7pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-be-the-afc-1-seed-baltimore-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-bal |
| Minnesota | 5¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-be-the-nfc-1-seed-minnesota-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-nfc26-min |
| Denver | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-be-the-afc-1-seed-denver-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-den |
| Buffalo | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-be-the-afc-1-seed-buffalo-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-buf |
| Cincinnati | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-be-the-afc-1-seed-cincinnati-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-cin |
| Indianapolis | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indianapolis-be-the-afc-1-seed-indianapolis-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-ind |
| Jacksonville | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacksonville-be-the-afc-1-seed-jacksonville-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-jac |
| Los Angeles C | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-c-be-the-afc-1-seed-los-angeles-c-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-lac |
| New England | 10¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-be-the-afc-1-seed-new-england-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-afc26-ne |
| Chicago | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-be-the-nfc-1-seed-chicago-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-nfc26-chi |
| Dallas | 7¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-be-the-nfc-1-seed-dallas-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-nfc26-dal |
| Detroit | 8¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-be-the-nfc-1-seed-detroit-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-nfc26-det |
| Green Bay | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-be-the-nfc-1-seed-green-bay-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-nfc26-gb |
| Los Angeles R | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-be-the-nfc-1-seed-los-angeles-r-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-nfc26-lar |
| Philadelphia | 7¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-be-the-nfc-1-seed-philadelphia-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-nfc26-phi |
| San Francisco | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-be-the-nfc-1-seed-san-francisco-kalshi-kxnfl1seed-nfc26-sf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | 8 |
| 2026-06-26 | 15 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Los Angeles R +15pp 2→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Los Angeles R +8pp 17→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Baltimore +7pp 2→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Baltimore −6pp 8→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Houston +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 9% probability indicates traders believe the Los Angeles Chargers have a roughly 1-in-11 chance of securing the AFC's top playoff seed. The Chargers face substantial competition from established AFC contenders like Buffalo (15% implied probability) and Kansas City (7%), suggesting the market views them as underdogs for the division title or conference success. Their path to the 1 seed depends heavily on divisional performance, head-to-head records against elite teams, and sustained offensive production. The Chargers' probability would shift based on injury developments, mid-season win-loss records, and strength of schedule relative to other AFC contenders. Resolution occurs after the 2026 NFL regular season concludes in early January 2027, when playoff seeding is finalized based on final regular-season standings and tiebreaker rules.

### Key factors

- Chargers' win-loss record through mid-season (by October-November 2026) relative to Buffalo, Kansas City, and other AFC contenders
- Injury status of key Chargers players, particularly at quarterback and on the offensive line
- Head-to-head results and strength of schedule (common opponent records) comparing Chargers to other AFC teams competing for top seed
- Chargers' record in divisional games within the AFC West against Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Denver
- Trading volume and contract price on Kalshi remains at $0 24h volume, suggesting low market conviction or limited active interest in this outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfl1seed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfl1seed

## License

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