# Will Indianapolis win the Pro Football AFC Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 10 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflafcchamp
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:56.760Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-22

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | 7¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jacksonville-win-the-pro-football-afc-champio-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-jac |
| Kansas City | 13¢ | — | $602 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-win-the-pro-football-afc-champion-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-kc |
| Baltimore | 12¢ | — | $584 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-win-the-pro-football-afc-championsh-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-bal |
| Denver | 9¢ | +1pp | $462 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-win-the-pro-football-afc-championship-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-den |
| New England | 10¢ | — | $428 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-pro-football-afc-champion-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-ne |
| Los Angeles C | 11¢ | — | $416 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-c-win-the-pro-football-afc-champi-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-lac |
| Houston | 7¢ | — | $379 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-pro-football-afc-championship-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-hou |
| Buffalo | 14¢ | — | $164 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-win-the-pro-football-afc-championship-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-buf |
| Cincinnati | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-win-the-pro-football-afc-champions-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-cin |
| Indianapolis | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-indianapolis-win-the-pro-football-afc-champio-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-ind |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 14 |
| 2026-04-23 | 11 |
| 2026-04-26 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 9% probability indicates that betting markets view Indianapolis as an unlikely but possible AFC Championship winner for the 2027 season. The Colts' low odds reflect their recent playoff performance and roster composition relative to stronger AFC contenders. Market pricing would likely shift upward if Indianapolis demonstrated consistent playoff success, acquired premium talent in upcoming drafts or free agency, or if their current conference competitors faced injury setbacks. The primary uncertainty resolver is the 2027 AFC Championship game itself, scheduled for early January 2027, which will determine whether the Colts advance to the Super Bowl. Secondary indicators include draft outcomes, free-agency transactions, and regular-season performance through late 2026, each providing incremental information about playoff trajectory.

### Key factors

- Colts' regular-season win-loss record and divisional standing heading into the 2026 playoffs
- Availability and performance of Indianapolis's quarterback and key offensive/defensive players during the 2026-2027 season
- Comparative strength of other AFC teams—Houston and Buffalo currently carry higher probability and contain similar divisional positioning
- Draft picks acquired and free-agent signings by Indianapolis versus competing AFC teams
- Head-to-head playoff seeding and matchup scenarios that would determine who Indianapolis faces in the AFC Championship game

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflafcchamp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflafcchamp

## License

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