# Will New York J win the Pro Football AFC East Division

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 4 contracts — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflafceast
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.151Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-25

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-win-the-pro-football-afc-east-division-kalshi-kxnflafceast-27-mia |
| Buffalo | 55¢ | −1pp | $158 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-win-the-pro-football-afc-east-divisio-kalshi-kxnflafceast-27-buf |
| New England | 36¢ | +1pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-pro-football-afc-east-div-kalshi-kxnflafceast-27-ne |
| New York J | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-j-win-the-pro-football-afc-east-divi-kalshi-kxnflafceast-27-nyj |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 2 |
| 2026-06-13 | 55 |
| 2026-06-19 | 29 |
| 2026-06-26 | 3 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that the New York Jets finish first in the AFC East division during the 2026 NFL season. At 31%, it suggests the Jets are considered competitive but not favorites for the division title. The probability is influenced by roster composition, recent performance trends, and strength of schedule compared to division rivals like the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the NFL regular season from September through December 2026, where head-to-head performance against division opponents directly determines the final standings. Injuries to key players, coaching decisions, and trades before the September start would also meaningfully shift expectations.

### Key factors

- Jets' win-loss record against other AFC East teams during the 2026 regular season (Sep-Dec 2026) directly determines division outcome
- Quarterback performance and availability, particularly for the Jets' starting QB compared to division rivals' quarterbacks
- Off-season roster moves and free agent signings completed before the 2026 season begins
- Injury status of key offensive and defensive players heading into and during the regular season
- Head-to-head strength metrics including playoff experience and recent historical performance of the Jets versus Bills, Patriots, and Dolphins

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflafceast
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflafceast

## License

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