# Will Pittsburgh win the Pro Football AFC North Division

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 4 contracts — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflafcnorth
Updated: 2026-06-08T08:20:07.887Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-25

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | 9¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-pittsburgh-win-the-pro-football-afc-north-div-kalshi-kxnflafcnorth-27-pit |
| Baltimore | 42¢ | ±0 | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-win-the-pro-football-afc-north-divi-kalshi-kxnflafcnorth-27-bal |
| Cincinnati | 34¢ | +2pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-win-the-pro-football-afc-north-div-kalshi-kxnflafcnorth-27-cin |
| Cleveland | 5¢ | ±0 | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-win-the-pro-football-afc-north-divi-kalshi-kxnflafcnorth-27-cle |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 8 |
| 2026-05-25 | 20 |
| 2026-06-01 | 10 |
| 2026-06-08 | 17 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Pittsburgh +4pp 15→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Pittsburgh −3pp 19→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Pittsburgh has a 25% estimated probability of winning the AFC North Division in the 2027 NFL season. This reflects their position among division rivals Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland, with all four teams competing for a single division title. The probability is influenced by roster strength, quarterback performance, and recent competitive trends within the division. The season's outcome will depend on how the team addresses offseason needs through the draft and free agency, injury management during the 2026 season, and head-to-head matchup results against division opponents. The AFC North will be decided through the 2026 regular season and playoffs, with the division winner determined by win-loss record and tiebreaker procedures in late December 2026 and early January 2027.

### Key factors

- Pittsburgh's quarterback situation and offensive line health compared to Baltimore's established roster and Cincinnati's recent competitive trajectory
- Draft and free agency acquisitions made by all four division teams during the 2026 offseason period
- Win-loss records accumulated through the 2026 regular season, particularly head-to-head divisional matchups scheduled between Pittsburgh and Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland
- Injury rates and roster stability maintained by Pittsburgh relative to other AFC North teams across the 2026 season
- Coaching and defensive performance consistency, which significantly impacts single-division competition outcomes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflafcnorth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflafcnorth

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.