# Will Sean McVay win the Coach of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 18 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflcoty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.206Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-28

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $370

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klint Kubiak | 8¢ | −1pp | $233 | kalshi | /markets/will-klint-kubiak-win-the-coach-of-the-year-klint-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-kkub |
| John Harbaugh | 6¢ | +1pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-harbaugh-win-the-coach-of-the-year-john-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-johar |
| Kellen Moore | 8¢ | — | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-kellen-moore-win-the-coach-of-the-year-kellen-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-kmoo |
| Ben Johnson | 4¢ | +2pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-johnson-win-the-coach-of-the-year-ben-joh-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-bjoh |
| Robert Saleh | 4¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-saleh-win-the-coach-of-the-year-robert-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-rsal |
| Mike LaFleur | 6¢ | — | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-lafleur-win-the-coach-of-the-year-mike-l-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-milaf |
| Dan Quinn | 8¢ | — | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-dan-quinn-win-the-coach-of-the-year-dan-quinn-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-dqui |
| Jeff Hafley | 4¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeff-hafley-win-the-coach-of-the-year-jeff-ha-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-jhaf |
| Kevin Stefanski | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kevin-stefanski-win-the-coach-of-the-year-kev-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-kste |
| Jesse Minter | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jesse-minter-win-the-coach-of-the-year-jesse-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-jmin |
| Joe Brady | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-brady-win-the-coach-of-the-year-joe-brady-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-jbra |
| Dave Canales | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dave-canales-win-the-coach-of-the-year-dave-c-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-dcan |
| Todd Monken | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-todd-monken-win-the-coach-of-the-year-todd-mo-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-tmon |
| Dan Campbell | 41¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dan-campbell-win-the-coach-of-the-year-dan-ca-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-dcam |
| DeMeco Ryans | 41¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-demeco-ryans-win-the-coach-of-the-year-demeco-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-drya |
| Liam Coen | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-liam-coen-win-the-coach-of-the-year-liam-coen-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-lcoe |
| Jim Harbaugh | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jim-harbaugh-win-the-coach-of-the-year-jim-ha-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-jihar |
| Sean McVay | 41¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sean-mcvay-win-the-coach-of-the-year-sean-mcv-kalshi-kxnflcoty-27-smcv |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | 2 |
| 2026-04-25 | 3 |
| 2026-05-02 | 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | 4 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the market's estimate that Sean McVay has a 23% chance of winning the NBA Coach of the Year award for the 2025-26 season. The relatively modest probability reflects that while McVay is a respected coach, other candidates appear to have stronger cases based on current contract pricing. Joe Mazzulla trades at 94 cents, suggesting he's the clear favorite, while several other coaches trade higher than McVay's implied odds. The award typically goes to coaches who achieve significant regular-season success, particularly those whose teams exceed preseason expectations or show substantial improvement. The probability could shift based on McVay's team performance through the remainder of the season and how his results compare to competing candidates' records. The award will be determined in late April 2026 following the regular season's conclusion, at which point voters will assess each candidate's full body of work.

### Key factors

- Joe Mazzulla's contract trades at 94 cents versus McVay's 23-cent implied probability, indicating market consensus that Mazzulla is significantly favored
- McVay's team's win-loss record and playoff positioning relative to preseason expectations will be central to voting considerations
- Coaching award voters typically reward teams that exceed expectations or show dramatic year-over-year improvement rather than consistent winners
- Contract volume and pricing suggest the market has limited conviction in McVay's candidacy compared to frontrunners
- The award is determined by voting following the regular season ending in April 2026, with final standings and records being the primary evaluation criteria

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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