# What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> 1: Los Angeles R / 2: Seattle / 3: San Francisco / 4: Arizona leads at 22%, runner-up 19% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldivisionorder
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:51.299Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Leader: 1: Los Angeles R / 2: Seattle / 3: San Francisco / 4: Arizona at 22%
- Runner-up: 1: Houston / 2: Jacksonville / 3: Indianapolis / 4: Tennessee at 19%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1: Los Angeles R / 2: Seattle / 3: San Francisco / 4: Arizona | 22¢ | +1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfcwest-larseasfari |
| 1: Houston / 2: Jacksonville / 3: Indianapolis / 4: Tennessee | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27afcsouth-houjacindten |
| 1: San Francisco / 2: Los Angeles R / 3: Seattle / 4: Arizona | 17¢ | −3pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfcwest-sflarseaari |
| 1: Dallas / 2: Philadelphia / 3: New York G / 4: Washington | 16¢ | +1pp | $320 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfceast-dalphinygwas |
| 1: Denver / 2: Los Angeles C / 3: Kansas City / 4: Las Vegas | 16¢ | +1pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27afcwest-denlackclv |
| 1: Houston / 2: Jacksonville / 3: Tennessee / 4: Indianapolis | 16¢ | — | $25 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27afcsouth-houjactenind |
| 1: Dallas / 2: Philadelphia / 3: Washington / 4: New York G | 15¢ | — | $19 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfceast-dalphiwasnyg |
| 1: Jacksonville / 2: Indianapolis / 3: Houston / 4: Tennessee | 14¢ | — | $34 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27afcsouth-jacindhouten |
| 1: Tampa Bay / 2: New Orleans / 3: Atlanta / 4: Carolina | 13¢ | — | $7 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfcsouth-tbnoatlcar |
| 1: New Orleans / 2: Atlanta / 3: Tampa Bay / 4: Carolina | 12¢ | +1pp | $157 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfcsouth-noatltbcar |
| 1: Atlanta / 2: Tampa Bay / 3: Carolina / 4: New Orleans | 11¢ | — | $43 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfcsouth-atltbcarno |
| 1: Pittsburgh / 2: Cincinnati / 3: Baltimore / 4: Cleveland | 11¢ | −2pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27afcnorth-pitcinbalcle |
| 1: New Orleans / 2: Carolina / 3: Atlanta / 4: Tampa Bay | 11¢ | — | $25 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfcsouth-nocaratltb |
| 1: Buffalo / 2: New England / 3: Miami / 4: New York J | 11¢ | +1pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27afceast-bufnemianyj |
| 1: Baltimore / 2: Cincinnati / 3: Pittsburgh / 4: Cleveland | 11¢ | ±0 | $14 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27afcnorth-balcinpitcle |
| 1: Chicago / 2: Detroit / 3: Green Bay / 4: Minnesota | 6¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfcnorth-chidetgbmin |
| 1: Los Angeles R / 2: San Francisco / 3: Seattle / 4: Arizona | 4¢ | +1pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfcwest-larsfseaari |
| 1: Detroit / 2: Green Bay / 3: Chicago / 4: Minnesota | 3¢ | +1pp | $318 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-exact-order-of-standings-for-the-kalshi-kxnfldivisionorder-27nfcnorth-detgbchimin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1: Los Angeles R / 2: Seattle / 3: San Francisco / 4: Arizona | 1: Houston / 2: Jacksonville / 3: Indianapolis / 4: Tennessee | 1: San Francisco / 2: Los Angeles R / 3: Seattle / 4: Arizona |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 19 | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — | 27 |
| 2026-07-22 | 21 | 19 | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 25 | — | 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | 17 | 18 | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — | 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | 18 | — | 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | 16 | 19 | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 14 | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — | — | 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | 22 | — | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · 1: Los Angeles R / 2: San Francisco / 3: Seattle / 4: Arizona −5pp 11→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · 1: Buffalo / 2: New England / 3: Miami / 4: New York J +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · 1: Los Angeles R / 2: Seattle / 3: San Francisco / 4: Arizona +4pp 17→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · 1: Los Angeles R / 2: San Francisco / 3: Seattle / 4: Arizona +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · 1: Los Angeles R / 2: San Francisco / 3: Seattle / 4: Arizona −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the probability that Detroit finishes 1st, Green Bay 2nd, Chicago 3rd, and Minnesota 4th in the NFC North division at the end of the 2026-27 regular season at 22%. The Detroit Lions' recent competitive strength and roster development are primary factors supporting this scenario, while competitive balance within the division—particularly Green Bay's quarterback situation and Minnesota's offensive capability—creates uncertainty. The outcome will be substantially shaped by mid-season team performance, injury outcomes, and trade-deadline moves between now and the February 2027 season conclusion. Division standings depend on win-loss records across 17 games, making roster health and coaching consistency critical variables through the full season arc.

### Key factors

- Detroit's divisional win-loss record and whether they maintain the competitive edge they've established in recent seasons
- Green Bay's quarterback performance and overall roster composition relative to other division teams
- Minnesota's ability to compete for division titles given their recent trajectory and roster investments
- Chicago's developmental progress if they are fielding a younger rebuild roster in 2026
- Injury occurrence rates among key players, particularly at quarterback and skill positions, across all four teams from now through February 2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldivisionorder
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldivisionorder

## License

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