# Will the teams in the NFC North record at least 28 total wins in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> 32+ total wins leads at 91%, runner-up 90% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldivisionwins
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.289Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Leader: 32+ total wins at 91%
- Runner-up: 28+ total wins at 90%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $98

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32+ total wins | 91¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-north-record-at-least-32-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcnorth-32 |
| 28+ total wins | 90¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-north-record-at-least-28-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcnorth-28 |
| 28+ total wins | 89¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-west-record-at-least-28-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcwest-28 |
| 32+ total wins | 89¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-west-record-at-least-32-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcwest-32 |
| 30+ total wins | 89¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-north-record-at-least-30-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcnorth-30 |
| 30+ total wins | 86¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-west-record-at-least-30-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcwest-30 |
| 34+ total wins | 86¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-north-record-at-least-34-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcnorth-34 |
| 34+ total wins | 77¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-west-record-at-least-34-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcwest-34 |
| 28+ total wins | 77¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-south-record-at-least-28-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcsouth-28 |
| 36+ total wins | 74¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-north-record-at-least-36-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcnorth-36 |
| 36+ total wins | 61¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-west-record-at-least-36-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcwest-36 |
| 30+ total wins | 61¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-south-record-at-least-30-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcsouth-30 |
| 38+ total wins | 42¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-west-record-at-least-38-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcwest-38 |
| 32+ total wins | 35¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-south-record-at-least-32-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcsouth-32 |
| 32+ total wins | 29¢ | +3pp | $98 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-afc-east-record-at-least-32-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27afceast-32 |
| 34+ total wins | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-south-record-at-least-34-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcsouth-34 |
| 40+ total wins | 25¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-west-record-at-least-40-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcwest-40 |
| 36+ total wins | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-south-record-at-least-36-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcsouth-36 |
| 42+ total wins | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-west-record-at-least-42-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcwest-42 |
| 38+ total wins | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-teams-in-the-nfc-south-record-at-least-38-kalshi-kxnfldivisionwins-27nfcsouth-38 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 32+ total wins | 28+ total wins | 28+ total wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 83 | 86 | 85 |
| 2026-06-29 | 90 | 93 | 93 |
| 2026-07-05 | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| 2026-07-06 | — | 92 | 92 |
| 2026-07-13 | 91 | 90 | 90 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · 30+ total wins −14pp 89→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · 32+ total wins −12pp 93→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · 32+ total wins −8pp 89→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · 32+ total wins −7pp 29→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · 30+ total wins −7pp 61→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract tracks whether the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, and Detroit Lions will combine for at least 28 wins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The 83% probability reflects market confidence that this relatively modest total is likely to be reached. The NFC North's recent trajectory matters considerably: the Lions have been competitive, while the Packers and Bears have shown inconsistent performance. Division strength typically hinges on injury rates, quarterback play, and trade deadline acquisitions. The outcome becomes clear only after the final games in early January 2027, though the division's playoff positioning by December will signal whether the win total is within reach. Comparison markets suggest similar divisions are viewed less favorably—the AFC North sits at 72% for the same 28-win threshold—indicating scouts may view the NFC North as structurally stronger.

### Key factors

- Historical NFC North win totals: the division averaged 26-27 combined wins in recent seasons; reaching 28 requires above-trend performance
- Injury impact on key players: significant losses to starting quarterbacks, running backs, or defensive stalwarts at any team could reduce collective output by 2-4 wins
- Regular season length and structure: the 2026-27 season follows standard 17-game format; strength of schedule affects win likelihood across the three teams
- Playoff contention dynamics: teams fighting for postseason spots tend to win more in final weeks, inflating totals in compressed schedules
- Trade deadline acquisitions: adding proven talent in mid-season can shift individual team win projections by 1-3 games collectively

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldivisionwins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldivisionwins

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.