# Will Nick Bosa win the Defensive Player of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 7 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldpoty
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:49.656Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-08

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $287

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anderson Jr. | 8¢ | −4pp | $241 | kalshi | /markets/will-will-anderson-jr-win-the-defensive-player-of-kalshi-kxnfldpoty-27-wand |
| Maxx Crosby | 6¢ | +1pp | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-maxx-crosby-win-the-defensive-player-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfldpoty-27-mcro |
| Myles Garrett | 17¢ | — | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-myles-garrett-win-the-defensive-player-of-the-kalshi-kxnfldpoty-27-mgar |
| Devin Lloyd | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-devin-lloyd-win-the-defensive-player-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfldpoty-27-dllo |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aidan-hutchinson-win-the-defensive-player-of-kalshi-kxnfldpoty-27-ahut |
| Jared Verse | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jared-verse-win-the-defensive-player-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfldpoty-27-jver |
| Nick Bosa | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nick-bosa-win-the-defensive-player-of-the-yea-kalshi-kxnfldpoty-27-nbos |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 2 |
| 2026-04-16 | 4 |
| 2026-04-26 | 7 |
| 2026-04-30 | 5 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Maxx Crosby +3pp 4→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the implied probability that Nick Bosa will be named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year for the 2026 season. At 4%, the market is pricing Bosa as a long-shot candidate, suggesting traders believe other defenders are more likely to earn the award. DPOY voters typically favor players with dominant statistical seasons—sack leaders, tackle records, or game-changing interception totals—combined with team success. Bosa's probability is constrained by several factors: competition from established elite pass rushers, the requirement for standout individual production across the full 17-game season, and the historical tendency for voters to recognize multiple different players rather than the same winner repeatedly. The 2026 NFL season will provide the statistical record determining DPOY eligibility, with voting occurring in early 2027 following the playoffs. Changes to this probability would track Bosa's actual performance metrics throughout the season, injuries to competing candidates, and his team's overall defensive ranking.

### Key factors

- Bosa must rank among league leaders in sacks or other measurable defensive statistics during the 2026 regular season to be seriously considered
- Players from playoff teams and Super Bowl contenders historically have higher DPOY win rates, making San Francisco's performance relevant
- DPOY voting occurs post-season in early 2027, so the market probability may shift substantially based on 2026 regular season performance data
- Competition includes multiple established pass rushers and elite defensive players, diluting any single candidate's probability
- Injuries to Bosa or other top defensive candidates during the season would be a significant catalyst for probability movement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldpoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldpoty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.