# Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 4 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraft1st
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:21:00.378Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-15

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-ari |
| Cleveland | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-cle |
| Miami | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-p-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-mia |
| New York J | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-j-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-nyj |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 6 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 6% probability that the New York Jets will receive the first overall pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft. The Jets typically only secure this pick by finishing with the worst record in the league during the 2026 season. The probability reflects the Jets' current roster construction and early-season expectations. Key factors include the Jets' performance through the 2026 regular season (which determines draft position through week 18), injuries to key players that could affect competitive balance, and the strength of schedule relative to other struggling teams. The primary resolution event is the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in early January 2027, when final standings determine draft order. Until then, the probability will likely fluctuate based on team performance, trade activity, and updated injury information that affects playoff contention across the league.

### Key factors

- Jets' win-loss record relative to other NFL teams through the 2026 season determines draft position
- Significant injuries to key roster players could either worsen or improve their competitive standing
- Trades or roster moves that materially change team strength around the deadline
- Strength of schedule analysis for remaining 2026 games relative to other bottom-standing teams
- Performance of other teams considered likely draft order competitors in early 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraft1st
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraft1st

## License

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