# Will there be 3+ edges drafted 1st Round

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftcat
Updated: 2026-06-24T05:20:51.080Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-10

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ international-born players drafted | 23¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-international-born-players-will-be-drafte-kalshi-kxnbadraftcat-26int-5 |
| 4+ international-born players drafted | 7¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-international-born-players-will-be-drafte-kalshi-kxnbadraftcat-26int-4 |
| Big 12 | 94¢ | −28pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-big-12-players-selected-in-the-kalshi-kxnbadraftcomp-26accbig12-b12 |
| 3+ international-born players drafted | 76¢ | −43pp | $542 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-international-born-players-will-be-drafte-kalshi-kxnbadraftcat-26int-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 73 |
| 2026-06-11 | 91 |
| 2026-06-19 | 69 |
| 2026-06-24 | 54 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · 3+ international-born players drafted −43pp 92→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Big 12 −28pp 91→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 4+ international-born players drafted −6pp 74→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 5+ international-born players drafted +4pp 32→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · 5+ international-born players drafted +3pp 29→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction represents a 77% likelihood that at least three defensive ends will be selected in the first round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft. The high probability reflects strong market confidence in edge rusher demand, driven by typical NFL draft patterns where defensive line talent consistently fills early selections. Primary factors supporting this level include the historical trend of 3+ edges being drafted first-round in most years and the current evaluations of defensive end prospects entering the draft process. The resolution occurs on the official draft date when first-round selections are finalized and player positions are confirmed. The main uncertainty involves how positional evaluations shift during the pre-draft evaluation period and whether surprise trades or unexpected draft strategies alter typical edge rusher selection patterns.

### Key factors

- Historical data on first-round edge rusher selections in recent NFL drafts shows typical distribution of 3-5 defensive ends selected early
- Current prospect evaluations and mock drafts from major scouting services indicate multiple edge rushers ranked within first-round range
- Teams' documented defensive needs heading into the draft season and their stated preferences for edge rusher talent
- Trade activity during draft day could alter the number of edges available in first-round selections
- The final accuracy of pre-draft positional classifications when determining which players count as 'edges' versus other defensive line positions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftcat
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraftcat

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.