# Will Texas be the school with the most players drafted in rounds 1, 2, and 3

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 19 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftcompare
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:52.963Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $51K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | 5¢ | −2pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-am-win-the-college-baseball-world-serie-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-txam |
| Ken Paxton | 57¢ | ±0 | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-ken-paxton-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-kalshi-kxsenatetxr-26-kp |
| Ken Paxton, 15-20% | 9¢ | −4pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxton-in-the-2-kalshi-kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26-kpax-p17 |
| James Talarico | 44¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-texas-jame-kalshi-senatetx-26-d |
| Texas | 10¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-win-the-college-baseball-world-series-t-kalshi-kxncaabaseball-26-tex |
| Texas | 11¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-win-the-college-football-playoff-nation-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-tex |
| Ken Paxton, 5-10% | 17¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxton-in-the-2-kalshi-kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26-kpax-p7 |
| John Cornyn | 42¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-john-cornyn-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-kalshi-kxsenatetxr-26-jc |
| May 2026 | 20¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-protest-within-the-united-states-that-draws-kalshi-kxmajorprotest-26may |
| Ken Paxton, 20%+ | 8¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxton-in-the-2-kalshi-kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26-kpax-p60 |
| Republican party | 54¢ | ±0 | $648 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-texas-repu-kalshi-senatetx-26-r |
| Texas | 23¢ | ±0 | $619 | kalshi | /markets/will-texas-be-the-2026-al-west-division-winner-tex-kalshi-kxmlbalwest-26-tex |
| Ken Paxton, 0-5% | 27¢ | +6pp | $575 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxton-in-the-2-kalshi-kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26-kpax-p2 |
| Ken Paxton, 10-15% | 7¢ | ±0 | $529 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxton-in-the-2-kalshi-kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26-kpax-p12 |
| Donald Trump → John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton | 8¢ | ±0 | $509 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-endorse-john-cornyn-and-ken-paxt-kalshi-kxtxrunoffendorse-26may26-djt-both |
| John Cornyn, 5-10% | 5¢ | +2pp | $316 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-john-cornyn-in-the-kalshi-kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26-jcor-p7 |
| 2 | 61¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t2 |
| Democrats, 3+ pts | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-go-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-txgovd-p3 |
| Donald Trump → John Cornyn | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-endorse-john-cornyn-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxtxrunoffendorse-26may26-djt-jcor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 25 |
| 2026-04-19 | 25 |
| 2026-04-26 | 27 |
| 2026-05-03 | 25 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Donald Trump → John Cornyn −9pp 33→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Ken Paxton, 0-5% −8pp 31→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Ken Paxton, 15-20% +7pp 6→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · May 2026 +6pp 13→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Ken Paxton, 0-5% +6pp 23→29¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftcompare
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraftcompare

## License

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