# Will Kayden McDonald be the 2nd Defensive Tackle drafted

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftdt
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:52.010Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $53K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC wins 4-0 | 40¢ | ±0 | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-win-4-0-in-the-los-angeles-l-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2-okc40 |
| OKC wins 4-2 | 18¢ | +2pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-win-4-2-in-the-los-angeles-l-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2-okc42 |
| SAS wins 4-2 | 16¢ | ±0 | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-2-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas42 |
| CAR wins 4-0 | 28¢ | +13pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-hurricanes-win-4-0-in-the-philadelph-kalshi-kxnhlseriesscore-26phicarr2-car40 |
| CAR wins 4-1 | 36¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-hurricanes-win-4-1-in-the-philadelph-kalshi-kxnhlseriesscore-26phicarr2-car41 |
| SAS wins 4-0 | 34¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-0-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas40 |
| CAR wins 4-2 | 20¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-hurricanes-win-4-2-in-the-philadelph-kalshi-kxnhlseriesscore-26phicarr2-car42 |
| Derrick White | 11¢ | +4pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-derrick-white-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-dwhi |
| Victor Wembanyama | 3¢ | +1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-victor-wembanyama-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-vwem |
| Cason Wallace | 75¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cason-wallace-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-cwal |
| Rudy Gobert | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rudy-gobert-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-ba-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-rgob |
| Dyson Daniels | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dyson-daniels-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-ddan |
| Chet Holmgren | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chet-holmgren-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-chol |
| Draymond Green | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-draymond-green-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-dgre |
| Isaiah Stewart | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-isaiah-stewart-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-iste |
| Donovan Clingan | 11¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donovan-clingan-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pr-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-dcli |
| OG Anunoby | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-og-anunoby-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-bas-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-oanu |
| Scottie Barnes | 35¢ | −15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-barnes-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-sbar |
| Luguentz Dort | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luguentz-dort-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-ldor |
| Amen Thompson | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amen-thompson-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba2ndteamdef-26-amtho |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 18 |
| 2026-04-19 | 22 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18 |
| 2026-05-03 | 24 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · OG Anunoby −64pp 66→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · CAR wins 4-0 +13pp 16→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · CAR wins 4-2 +11pp 8→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · CAR wins 4-1 +9pp 14→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · CAR wins 4-0 +5pp 11→16¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftdt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraftdt

## License

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