# Will Sonny Styles be drafted before Jeremiyah Love

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 18 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftmatchup
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:49.098Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 20% / Polymarket 25% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $681K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 30¢ | −2pp | $176K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027-polymarket-0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846 |
| Before May 15, 2026 | 4¢ | ±0 | $84K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260515 |
| Before 2027 | 33¢ | −8pp | $81K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musk-win-musk-v-altman-et-al-before-2027-kalshi-kxmuskoai-26 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 19¢ | −3pp | $61K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027-polymarket-0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 18¢ | −3pp | $49K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260601 |
| Before 2027 | 21¢ | +1pp | $49K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027-kalshi-kxaliens-27 |
| Before Jan 4, 2027 | 9¢ | +1pp | $48K | kalshi | /markets/will-save-act-hr-22-becomes-law-before-jan-4-2027-kalshi-kxsaveact-27-jan04 |
| Before June | 10¢ | −1pp | $44K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jun |
| Before July 2026 | 9¢ | +2pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-100000-by-july-1-2026-at-120-kalshi-kxbtcmax100-26-june |
| Before June 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $30K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-100000-by-june-1-2026-at-120-kalshi-kxbtcmax100-26-may |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 11¢ | +1pp | $21K | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-ipo-before-jun-1-2026-kalshi-kxipospacex-26jun01 |
| Before May 7, 2026 | 5¢ | −4pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-luka-doncic-play-in-a-game-for-los-angeles-l-kalshi-kxnbareturn-26lalldon-507 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-styles-and-zoe-kravitz-be-married-befor-kalshi-kxmarriagestyleskravitz-hszk-27jul01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-styles-and-zoe-kravitz-be-married-befor-kalshi-kxmarriagestyleskravitz-hszk-27jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-styles-and-zoe-kravitz-be-married-befor-kalshi-kxmarriagestyleskravitz-hszk-28jan01 |
| Harry Styles | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-styles-be-on-jimmy-kimmel-live-before-2-kalshi-kxmediaguestkimmel-27-har |
| Harry Styles | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-styles-be-on-the-tonight-show-starring-kalshi-kxmediaguestfallon-27-har |
| Sonny Styles | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sonny-styles-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-ssty |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 28 |
| 2026-04-19 | 30 |
| 2026-04-26 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 16 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Before May 7, 2026 −20pp 33→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Sonny Styles +10pp 3→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Before 2027 +8pp 49→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Before 2027 −8pp 42→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? +7pp 22→29¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftmatchup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraftmatchup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.