# Who will be picked 7th in the Pro Football Draft

> Arch Manning leads at 23%, runner-up 10% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftpick
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:56.457Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Arch Manning at 23%
- Runner-up: Dante Moore at 10%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning | 23¢ | −14pp | $163 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-a-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-aman |
| Dante Moore | 10¢ | ±0 | $172 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-d-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-dmoo |
| Jeremiah Smith | 6¢ | −2pp | $238 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsmi |
| LaNorris Sellers | 5¢ | +2pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-l-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-lsel |
| CJ Carr | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-c-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-ccar |
| Drew Mestemaker | 4¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-d-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-dmes |
| Julian Sayin | 4¢ | +1pp | $284 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-j-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-jsay |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Arch Manning | Dante Moore | Jeremiah Smith |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 16 | 4 | 5 |
| 2026-04-26 | 21 | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-05-03 | 14 | 10 | 6 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Arch Manning −14pp 28→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Arch Manning +10pp 18→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Arch Manning +9pp 12→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Jeremiah Smith +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Arch Manning −5pp 23→18¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftpick
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraftpick

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.