# Will Taylen Green be the 2nd Quarterback drafted

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftqb
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.111Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-02-13

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | 3¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-win-the-2027-pro-football-champions-kalshi-kxsb-27-gb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 3 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Taylen Green will be selected second overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. At 3%, the market considers this outcome unlikely relative to other quarterback prospects. The current low probability likely reflects uncertainty about Green's draft position amid competition from other highly-rated quarterback prospects and questions about team needs at that pick. The primary catalyst for movement would be Green's on-field performance during the 2026 college football season and how his draft stock evolves relative to other quarterback prospects. Additionally, news about which teams hold early picks and their potential quarterback needs would inform market expectations about the likelihood of a quarterback going second overall versus other positions.

### Key factors

- Taylen Green's performance metrics during the 2026 college football season relative to other top quarterback prospects
- The identity and reported quarterback needs of teams holding the first and second overall picks in 2027
- Evaluations from NFL scouts and draft analysts regarding Green's readiness and fit for pro-level play
- Whether quarterback-needy teams prioritize reaching for Green at second or wait for later picks
- Historical draft patterns showing how often quarterbacks are selected in the top two positions versus other positions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftqb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraftqb

## License

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