# Will Emmett Johnson be the 2nd Running Back drafted

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 19 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftrb
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:59.910Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $78K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC wins 4-0 | 40¢ | ±0 | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-win-4-0-in-the-los-angeles-l-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2-okc40 |
| OKC wins 4-2 | 18¢ | +2pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-win-4-2-in-the-los-angeles-l-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26lalokcr2-okc42 |
| SAS wins 4-2 | 16¢ | ±0 | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-2-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas42 |
| CAR wins 4-0 | 28¢ | +13pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-hurricanes-win-4-0-in-the-philadelph-kalshi-kxnhlseriesscore-26phicarr2-car40 |
| CAR wins 4-1 | 36¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-hurricanes-win-4-1-in-the-philadelph-kalshi-kxnhlseriesscore-26phicarr2-car41 |
| SAS wins 4-0 | 34¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-0-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas40 |
| MIN wins 4-3 | 12¢ | +4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-wild-win-4-3-in-the-minnesota-wild-kalshi-kxnhlseriesscore-26mincolr2-min43 |
| MIN wins 4-3 | 5¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-4-3-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-ant-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-min43 |
| MIN wins 4-2 | 4¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-4-2-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-ant-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-min42 |
| Colorado Avalanche -2.5 games | 18¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-colorado-avalanche-cover-25-games-in-the-minn-kalshi-kxnhlseriesspread-26mincolr2-col3 |
| SAS wins 4-1 | 33¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-win-4-1-in-the-minnesota-vs-san-a-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26minsasr2-sas41 |
| CAR wins 4-2 | 20¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-hurricanes-win-4-2-in-the-philadelph-kalshi-kxnhlseriesscore-26phicarr2-car42 |
| COL wins 4-2 | 20¢ | +11pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-colorado-avalanche-win-4-2-in-the-minnesota-w-kalshi-kxnhlseriesscore-26mincolr2-col42 |
| MIN wins 4-2 | 9¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-wild-win-4-2-in-the-minnesota-wild-kalshi-kxnhlseriesscore-26mincolr2-min42 |
| Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 95¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-roberto-snchez-palomino-finish-2nd-in-the-fir-kalshi-kxperupres2nd-26mar25-2-rpal |
| Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 games | 77¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-hurricanes-cover-15-games-in-the-phi-kalshi-kxnhlseriesspread-26phicarr2-car2 |
| Carolina Hurricanes -2.5 games | 47¢ | −12pp | $398 | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-hurricanes-cover-25-games-in-the-phi-kalshi-kxnhlseriesspread-26phicarr2-car3 |
| Dusty Johnson | 60¢ | +1pp | $373 | kalshi | /markets/will-dusty-johnson-be-the-republican-nominee-for-g-kalshi-kxgovsdnomr-26-djoh |
| Jalen Johnson | 24¢ | +21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-johnson-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-kalshi-kxnba2ndteam-26-jjoh |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 22 |
| 2026-04-19 | 45 |
| 2026-04-26 | 57 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Carolina Hurricanes -2.5 games +38pp 2→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Jalen Johnson +21pp 3→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · CAR wins 4-0 +13pp 16→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Carolina Hurricanes -2.5 games −12pp 40→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · CAR wins 4-2 +11pp 8→19¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftrb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraftrb

## License

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