# Will Michael Trigg be the 3rd Tight End drafted

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 20 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftte
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:56.049Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thurmond | 16¢ | ±0 | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-thurmond-be-the-democratic-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxgovganomd-26-mt |
| Michael Jackson | 8¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-jackson-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotusa-26jun01-mic |
| Michael Carrick | 74¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-manager-of-manchester-united-kalshi-kxnextmanagermanu-26-mcar |
| Michael Jackson | 40¢ | +5pp | $637 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-jackson-be-1-on-the-any-spotify-daily-kalshi-kxranklistsongspotglobal-26jun01-mic |
| Tyrese Maxey | 31¢ | −11pp | $298 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyrese-maxey-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-p-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-tmax |
| Michael Olise | 18¢ | −2pp | $183 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-ballon-dor-in-2026-michael-olise-kalshi-kxballondor-26-moli |
| Michael Whatley | 14¢ | +1pp | $130 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-north-caro-kalshi-senatenc-26-r |
| Xavier Becerra | 11¢ | +2pp | $106 | kalshi | /markets/will-xavier-becerra-finish-3rd-in-the-2026-califor-kalshi-kxcagov3rd-26jun02-3-xbec |
| Renan Santos | 23¢ | −2pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-renan-santos-finish-3rd-in-the-first-round-of-kalshi-kxbrpresident3-brpres26-3-rsan |
| Michael Morales | 7¢ | −1pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-welterweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcwelterweighttitle-26-mmor |
| Michael Echols | 21¢ | +5pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-echols-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxlaprimary-05r26-mech |
| Michael Bennet | 67¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-bennet-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxgovconomd-26-mben |
| Jalen Duren | 74¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-duren-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-pr-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-jdur |
| Tom Steyer | 25¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-steyer-finish-3rd-in-the-2026-california-kalshi-kxcagov3rd-26jun02-3-tste |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michelle-bolsonaro-finish-3rd-in-the-first-ro-kalshi-kxbrpresident3-brpres26-3-mbol |
| Michael Barkley | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-barkley-advance-in-the-2026-ca-05-pri-kalshi-kxcaprimary-0526-mbar |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-karl-anthony-towns-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-ktow |
| any 3rd Amendment case | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cases-will-the-supreme-court-agree-to-hear-be-kalshi-kxscotuscert3rd-29jan-3rd |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 17¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ronaldo-caiado-finish-3rd-in-the-first-round-kalshi-kxbrpresident3-brpres26-3-rcai |
| Jaylen Brown | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaylen-brown-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-p-kalshi-kxnba3rdteam-26-jbro |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 32 |
| 2026-04-19 | 38 |
| 2026-04-26 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | 28 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Tyrese Maxey −26pp 60→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Michael Jackson +14pp 14→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tyrese Maxey −11pp 34→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Michael Thurmond +8pp 4→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Tom Steyer +8pp 15→23¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftte
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraftte

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.