# Will Miami draft a quarterback in Rounds 1, 2, or 3

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 17 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftteampos
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:59.088Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $103K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Grand Prix postponed or canceled | 11¢ | ±0 | $48K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-miami-grand-prix-be-postponed-or-canceled-kalshi-kxf1delay-26mia-yes |
| 79° to 80° | 3¢ | −7pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-miami-be-79-80-on-may-3-2026-kalshi-kxhighmia-26may03-b79.5 |
| 81° to 82° | 41¢ | −12pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-miami-be-81-82-on-may-3-2026-kalshi-kxhighmia-26may03-b81.5 |
| 83° to 84° | 35¢ | +12pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-miami-be-83-84-on-may-3-2026-kalshi-kxhighmia-26may03-b83.5 |
| 85° to 86° | 8¢ | +11pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-miami-be-85-86-on-may-3-2026-kalshi-kxhighmia-26may03-b85.5 |
| Miami Heretics | 65¢ | +3pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-heretics-win-the-g2-minnesota-vs-miami-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031630g2mmh-mh |
| Miami | 3¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-be-the-2026-nl-east-division-winner-mia-kalshi-kxmlbnleast-26-mia |
| Cameron Boozer | 3¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-first-in-the-pro-mens-basketbal-kalshi-kxnbadraft1-26-cboo |
| Drew Mestemaker | 4¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-picked-1st-in-the-pro-football-draft-d-kalshi-kxnfldraftpick-27-1-dmes |
| Patrick Mahomes | 62¢ | +26pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-be-starting-quarterback-for-k-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-kc-pmah |
| Miami (FL) | 6¢ | — | $862 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-fl-win-the-college-football-playoff-nat-kalshi-kxncaaf-27-mia |
| Atlanta | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-draft-lot-kalshi-kxnbatoppick-26-atl |
| Miami | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-make-the-1st-overall-pick-in-the-2027-p-kalshi-kxnfldraft1st-27-mia |
| Malik Willis | 67¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-malik-willis-be-quarterback-for-miami-in-week-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-mia-mwil |
| Miami | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-be-awarded-with-a-top-5-pick-in-the-202-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t5-mia |
| Miami | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-be-awarded-with-a-top-3-pick-in-the-202-kalshi-kxnbalottery-26t3-mia |
| Miami | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-win-the-pro-football-afc-east-division-kalshi-kxnflafceast-27-mia |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 39 |
| 2026-04-19 | 40 |
| 2026-04-26 | 8 |
| 2026-05-03 | 24 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Patrick Mahomes +26pp 35→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Patrick Mahomes −25pp 38→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · 81° to 82° −12pp 31→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · 83° to 84° +12pp 29→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · 85° to 86° +11pp 14→25¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldraftteampos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfldraftteampos

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.