# Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 9 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfldroty
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:21:01.927Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-28

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $532

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Bain Jr. | 17¢ | +4pp | $212 | kalshi | /markets/will-rueben-bain-jr-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-th-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-rbai |
| Arvell Reese | 7¢ | +3pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/will-arvell-reese-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-aree |
| CJ Allen | 5¢ | +1pp | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-cj-allen-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-call |
| Caleb Downs | 7¢ | −3pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-downs-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-y-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-cdow |
| Sonny Styles | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sonny-styles-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-ssty |
| David Bailey | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-bailey-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-dbai |
| Mansoor Delane | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mansoor-delane-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-th-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-mdel |
| Dillon Thieneman | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dillon-thieneman-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-dthi |
| Keldric Faulk | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-keldric-faulk-win-the-defensive-rookie-of-the-kalshi-kxnfldroty-27-kfau |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | 2 |
| 2026-04-22 | 2 |
| 2026-04-26 | 11 |
| 2026-05-03 | 7 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Sonny Styles +10pp 3→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Caleb Downs −5pp 12→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Rueben Bain Jr. +4pp 13→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Caleb Downs +4pp 5→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Rueben Bain Jr. +3pp 4→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 10% probability reflects market expectations that Rueben Bain Jr. will win the NBA Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 season. The low probability suggests the market views him as a long-shot candidate, likely due to competition from other talented defensive rookies or uncertainty about his role and minutes in his team's system. Key factors pushing this estimate up or down include his actual playing time and defensive impact once the season begins, how his statistics compare to other rookie defenders, and whether his team values him in crucial defensive matchups. The award winner is determined after the regular season concludes and voters decide, which will occur in spring 2027 once sufficient performance data accumulates.

### Key factors

- Rueben Bain Jr.'s actual defensive statistics and playing time during the 2026-2027 NBA regular season relative to competing rookie defenders
- The distribution of votes among multiple defensive rookie candidates—a concentrated field of strong defenders would keep his chances lower than a fragmented one
- His team's defensive scheme and whether he receives minutes in high-leverage situations versus limited bench role usage
- Voter perception shifts as the season progresses, influenced by media coverage and highlight-reel performances in nationally televised games
- Comparison of his advanced defensive metrics (steals, blocks, defensive rating, plus-minus) to other nominees in the final voting stage

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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