# Will Joe Schoen win the Executive of the Year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 6 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflexecoty
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:11.941Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-21

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Berry | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andrew-berry-win-the-executive-of-the-year-an-kalshi-kxnflexecoty-27-aber |
| Howie Roseman | 7¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-howie-roseman-win-the-executive-of-the-year-h-kalshi-kxnflexecoty-27-hros |
| Ian Cunningham | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ian-cunningham-win-the-executive-of-the-year-kalshi-kxnflexecoty-27-icun |
| John Lynch | 8¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-lynch-win-the-executive-of-the-year-john-kalshi-kxnflexecoty-27-jlyn |
| John Schneider | 8¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-schneider-win-the-executive-of-the-year-kalshi-kxnflexecoty-27-jsch |
| Mickey Loomis | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mickey-loomis-win-the-executive-of-the-year-m-kalshi-kxnflexecoty-27-mloo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 2 |
| 2026-05-15 | 6 |
| 2026-05-22 | 6 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Howie Roseman +6pp 1→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · John Schneider +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · John Lynch +4pp 4→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Mickey Loomis +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Joe Schoen, the New York Giants' General Manager, has a 4% chance of winning NFL Executive of the Year for the 2026 season. The low probability suggests the market views Schoen as unlikely to be selected among the year's top GM candidates. Key factors driving this assessment include the Giants' recent performance trajectory, whether significant roster improvements materialize during the 2026 season, and how Schoen's personnel decisions compare to peers like Brian Gutekunst (Green Bay) and Ryan Poles (Chicago), who have higher probabilities in the market. The award will be determined following the 2026 NFL season, typically announced in early 2027, based on factors including team improvement, draft success, free agency moves, and overall executive performance. Resolution depends on both the Giants' on-field results and voters' perception of Schoen's strategic decisions relative to other front-office executives.

### Key factors

- Giants' 2026 regular season win-loss record and whether it significantly exceeds 2025 performance
- Quality and production impact of Schoen's 2026 draft picks and free agency acquisitions
- Comparison of Giants' front-office moves to competing GMs (Gutekunst, Poles, others) in franchise trajectory and player development
- Market perception of Schoen's handling of quarterback situation and roster composition heading into season
- Award voting timeline and pattern in Executive of the Year selection, typically favoring GMs of over-performing teams in January 2027

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflexecoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflexecoty

## License

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