# CeeDee Lamb scores more fantasy points than Amon-Ra St. Brown in the 2026-27 regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 44% across 20 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflffh2hseason
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:21:00.869Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $97

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 68¢ | −9pp | $96 | kalshi | /markets/trey-mcbride-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-brock-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27bbowtmcr-tmcr |
| Josh Allen | 18¢ | −44pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/josh-allen-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-lamar-j-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jallljac-jall |
| Saquon Barkley | 41¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/saquon-barkley-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-der-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27sbardhen-sbar |
| Derrick Henry | 51¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/derrick-henry-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-saqu-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27sbardhen-dhen |
| Puka Nacua | 40¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/puka-nacua-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-jaxon-s-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27pnacjsmi-pnac |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 13¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jaxon-smith-njigba-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27pnacjsmi-jsmi |
| Patrick Mahomes | 59¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/patrick-mahomes-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-ma-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27pmahmsta-pmah |
| Matthew Stafford | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/matthew-stafford-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-p-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27pmahmsta-msta |
| Jaylen Waddle | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jaylen-waddle-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-devo-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jwaddsmi-jwad |
| DeVonta Smith | 60¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/devonta-smith-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-jayl-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jwaddsmi-dsmi |
| Jalen Hurts | 55¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jalen-hurts-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-jayden-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jhurjdan-jhur |
| Jayden Daniels | 38¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jayden-daniels-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-jal-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jhurjdan-jdan |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jahmyr-gibbs-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-bijan-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jgibbrob-jgib |
| Bijan Robinson | 36¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bijan-robinson-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-jah-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jgibbrob-brob |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 52¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jamarr-chase-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-justi-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jchajjef-jcha |
| Justin Jefferson | 45¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/justin-jefferson-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-j-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jchajjef-jjef |
| Lamar Jackson | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/lamar-jackson-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-josh-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27jallljac-ljac |
| Garrett Wilson | 47¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/garrett-wilson-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-mal-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27gwilmnab-gwil |
| Malik Nabers | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/malik-nabers-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-garre-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27gwilmnab-mnab |
| DJ Moore | 50¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dj-moore-scores-more-fantasy-points-than-luther-bu-kalshi-kxnflffh2hseason-27dmoolbur-dmoo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 29 |
| 2026-09-07 | 46 |
| 2026-09-12 | 46 |
| 2026-09-19 | 46 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Patrick Mahomes +48pp 11→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Josh Allen −44pp 62→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Patrick Mahomes −39pp 50→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Puka Nacua −35pp 47→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Jaxon Smith-Njigba −33pp 45→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 42% chance that CeeDee Lamb finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with more fantasy points than Amon-Ra St. Brown. The market currently favors St. Brown slightly, reflected in the 50¢ contract price on the inverse outcome. Lamb's probability is shaped by his role in the Dallas Cowboys' offense and his historical scoring consistency, while St. Brown's slight edge reflects his high target volume and red-zone involvement with the Detroit Lions. The resolution depends entirely on comparative performance across the full 17-game regular season, making mid-season injury status and team offensive efficiency critical factors. The probability will shift based on actual production through the season, with early-season performance establishing baselines and trades or injuries potentially creating significant swings in either direction.

### Key factors

- Target share trends: Lamb's average targets per game versus St. Brown's target volume in their respective offenses through the season
- Scoring efficiency: Red zone opportunity frequency and touchdown conversion rates for each player relative to their baseline expectations
- Injury status and availability: Any significant injuries to either player or their primary quarterbacks affecting offensive production
- Team offensive performance: Changes in Cowboys and Lions scoring pace, pace-of-play, or offensive coordinator adjustments that affect receiver workload
- Bye week timing and strength of schedule: Opponent defenses faced in critical weeks may differentially impact final point totals

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflffh2hseason
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflffh2hseason

## License

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