# Will Brock Bowers be the #1 ranked fantasy TE in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 14 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflffleader
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:20:53.737Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-18

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN Vikings D/ST | 7¢ | −2pp | $538 | kalshi | /markets/will-min-vikings-dst-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-dst-i-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27dst-min |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 14¢ | −2pp | $396 | kalshi | /markets/will-amon-ra-st-brown-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-wr-i-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27wr-astbrown14 |
| Josh Allen | 42¢ | +9pp | $377 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-allen-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-qb-in-the-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27qb-jallen17 |
| Bijan Robinson | 8¢ | ±0 | $272 | kalshi | /markets/will-bijan-robinson-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-rb-in-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27rb-brobinson7 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3¢ | +1pp | $231 | kalshi | /markets/will-dalton-kincaid-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-te-in-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27te-dkincaid86 |
| Tucker Kraft | 5¢ | −1pp | $188 | kalshi | /markets/will-tucker-kraft-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-te-in-th-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27te-tkraft85 |
| Caleb Williams | 12¢ | −2pp | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-williams-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-qb-in-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27qb-cwilliams18 |
| Mark Andrews | 5¢ | — | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-andrews-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-te-in-th-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27te-mandrews89 |
| Lamar Jackson | 8¢ | ±0 | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-lamar-jackson-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-qb-in-t-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27qb-ljackson8 |
| Trey McBride | 35¢ | ±0 | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-trey-mcbride-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-te-in-th-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27te-tmcbride85 |
| Justin Jefferson | 9¢ | −1pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-jefferson-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-wr-i-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27wr-jjefferson18 |
| Caleb Douglas | 16¢ | +1pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-douglas-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-rookie-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27rookwr-cdouglas7 |
| SEA Seahawks D/ST | 13¢ | +6pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-seahawks-dst-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-dst-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27dst-sea |
| Jeremiyah Love | 10¢ | +1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeremiyah-love-be-the-1-ranked-fantasy-rookie-kalshi-kxnflffleader-27rook-jlove4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | 14 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Trey McBride +26pp 4→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Trey McBride −18pp 22→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Amon-Ra St. Brown +14pp 4→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Jeremiyah Love −14pp 23→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Caleb Douglas +11pp 3→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Bowers finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season as the top-scoring tight end in fantasy football. At 17%, the market sees Bowers as a significant contender but not the favorite—substantially ahead of Loveland (5%) and Warren (4%), yet far below what would indicate clear favorite status. The current level likely reflects Bowers' performance trajectory since his 2024 draft selection and early career productivity against uncertainty about his offensive system, team circumstances, and competition from established veterans. The season begins in September 2026, making actual on-field performance over the next several weeks the primary catalyst that will resolve this question. Weeks 1-4 will provide meaningful data on target share, red-zone usage, and scoring pace relative to the TE field.

### Key factors

- Bowers' target volume and red-zone opportunity share through early weeks of the 2026-27 season versus other elite TE options
- Injuries to Bowers or competing tight ends (especially higher-probability candidates not listed separately in these contracts)
- His NFL team's offensive system, quarterback play, and overall offensive productivity in 2026
- Whether a veteran tight end significantly outperforms early expectations or a peer surges in targets and scoring
- Cumulative fantasy points scored by Bowers compared to the TE field by season's end, measured through standard fantasy scoring

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflffleader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflffleader

## License

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