# Will Bijan Robinson be a top 5 fantasy RB in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 20 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflffleadertop
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.350Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-18

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza | 10¢ | −2pp | $512 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-mendoza-be-a-top-10-fantasy-qb-in-th-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27qbt10-fmendoza15 |
| Malik Willis | 25¢ | −3pp | $221 | kalshi | /markets/will-malik-willis-be-a-top-10-fantasy-qb-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27qbt10-mwillis2 |
| Malik Nabers | 27¢ | +12pp | $98 | kalshi | /markets/will-malik-nabers-be-a-top-10-fantasy-wr-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27wrt10-mnabers1 |
| Jadarian Price | 12¢ | +6pp | $83 | kalshi | /markets/will-jadarian-price-be-a-top-10-fantasy-rb-in-the-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27rbt10-jprice8 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 31¢ | +2pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-dalton-kincaid-be-a-top-10-fantasy-te-in-the-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27tet10-dkincaid86 |
| De'Von Achane | 45¢ | +4pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-devon-achane-be-a-top-10-fantasy-rb-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27rbt10-dachane28 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 53¢ | −7pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamarr-chase-be-a-top-10-fantasy-wr-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27wrt10-jchase1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 16¢ | +4pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaylen-waddle-be-a-top-10-fantasy-wr-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27wrt10-jwaddle17 |
| Derrick Henry | 44¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-derrick-henry-be-a-top-10-fantasy-rb-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27rbt10-dhenry22 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 60¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amon-ra-st-brown-be-a-top-10-fantasy-wr-in-th-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27wrt10-astbrown14 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 62¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeremiyah-love-be-a-top-5-fantasy-rookie-in-t-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27rookt5-jlove4 |
| Malik Nabers | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-malik-nabers-be-a-top-3-fantasy-wr-in-the-202-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27wrt3-mnabers1 |
| Malik Nabers | 15¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-malik-nabers-be-a-top-5-fantasy-wr-in-the-202-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27wrt5-mnabers1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-courtland-sutton-be-a-top-10-fantasy-wr-in-th-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27wrt10-csutton14 |
| James Cook III | 56¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-cook-iii-be-a-top-10-fantasy-rb-in-the-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27rbt10-jcook4 |
| Cade Klubnik | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cade-klubnik-be-a-top-5-fantasy-rookie-in-the-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27rookt5-cklubnik10 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 29¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dezhaun-stribling-be-a-top-5-fantasy-rookie-i-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27rookt5-dstribling15 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 19¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dezhaun-stribling-be-a-top-3-fantasy-rookie-i-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27rookt3-dstribling15 |
| Blake Corum | 8¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-blake-corum-be-a-top-10-fantasy-rb-in-the-202-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27rbt10-bcorum24 |
| Jake Ferguson | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jake-ferguson-be-a-top-10-fantasy-te-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnflffleadertop-27tet10-jferguson87 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | 10 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · Ja'Marr Chase +52pp 2→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Amon-Ra St. Brown +25pp 11→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Jeremiyah Love +25pp 33→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Derrick Henry +22pp 2→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Derrick Henry +20pp 24→44¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 14% chance that Bijan Robinson finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season as a top-5 fantasy running back. Robinson enters the season after three years of NFL experience with the Atlanta Falcons, competing in a crowded field of elite backs for league-wide scoring volume and efficiency. His probability reflects both the talent threshold required to reach top-5 status—a position typically claimed by 5-6 elite performers from 32 teams—and uncertainty about his 2026 offensive environment, coaching changes, and injury status. The market will resolve once fantasy football scoring is finalized in January 2027, with the outcome depending largely on carries, receiving opportunities, and touchdown production relative to other elite backs. Key drivers include the Falcons' offensive scheme changes, whether Robinson maintains a feature-back role, and how competing backs perform across the league.

### Key factors

- Robinson's average carries and target share per game during the 2026 season compared to historical levels and other projected top-5 backs
- Changes to the Falcons' offensive coaching staff, play-calling philosophy, or running back rotation since the 2025 season
- Injury status of Robinson and competing elite RBs (Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and other top-volume backs) throughout the season
- Red-zone touches and touchdown opportunities allocated to Robinson versus other Falcons offensive weapons
- Robinson's rushing and receiving yards per game in 2026 versus the typical statistical thresholds for top-5 fantasy RB finishes in recent seasons

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflffleadertop
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflffleadertop

## License

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