# Will Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 47% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflgame
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:10.352Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-17

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | 67¢ | −1pp | $431 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-the-new-england-vs-seattle-pro-fo-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep09nesea-sea |
| Arizona | 17¢ | ±0 | $317 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-win-the-arizona-vs-los-angeles-c-pro-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13arilac-ari |
| New Orleans | 24¢ | ±0 | $268 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-orleans-win-the-new-orleans-vs-detroit-pr-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13nodet-no |
| Cleveland | 25¢ | −1pp | $191 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-win-the-cleveland-vs-jacksonville-p-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13clejac-cle |
| Minnesota | 48¢ | ±0 | $117 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-the-green-bay-vs-minnesota-pro-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13gbmin-min |
| New York G | 39¢ | −3pp | $111 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-g-win-the-dallas-vs-new-york-g-pro-f-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13dalnyg-nyg |
| Denver | 42¢ | ±0 | $109 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-win-the-denver-vs-kansas-city-pro-foot-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep14denkc-den |
| San Francisco | 39¢ | +1pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-win-the-san-francisco-vs-los-an-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep10sflar-sf |
| Baltimore | 62¢ | +5pp | $56 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-win-the-baltimore-vs-indianapolis-p-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13balind-bal |
| Tennessee | 48¢ | −1pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-tennessee-win-the-new-york-j-vs-tennessee-pro-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13nyjten-ten |
| New England | 32¢ | ±0 | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-new-england-vs-seattle-pr-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep09nesea-ne |
| Dallas | 55¢ | +1pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-win-the-dallas-vs-new-york-g-pro-footb-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13dalnyg-dal |
| Green Bay | 50¢ | −8pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-win-the-green-bay-vs-minnesota-pro-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13gbmin-gb |
| Los Angeles C | 83¢ | −1pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-c-win-the-arizona-vs-los-angeles-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13arilac-lac |
| Washington | 34¢ | −7pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-win-the-washington-vs-philadelphia-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13wasphi-was |
| Los Angeles R | 58¢ | +1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-win-the-san-francisco-vs-los-an-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep10sflar-lar |
| Chicago | 54¢ | ±0 | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-chicago-vs-carolina-pro-footb-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13chicar-chi |
| Houston | 48¢ | +4pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-buffalo-vs-houston-pro-footba-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13bufhou-hou |
| Buffalo | 51¢ | +7pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-win-the-buffalo-vs-houston-pro-footba-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13bufhou-buf |
| Las Vegas | 62¢ | −4pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-las-vegas-win-the-miami-vs-las-vegas-pro-foot-kalshi-kxnflgame-26sep13mialv-lv |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 32 |
| 2026-05-21 | 45 |
| 2026-05-28 | 51 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · Houston −18pp 51→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Buffalo −18pp 48→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Baltimore −11pp 67→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · New York G −9pp 44→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Green Bay −8pp 50→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that Green Bay is less likely than Minnesota to win their upcoming matchup. This level suggests Minneapolis enters as a modest favorite, with the 66% implied probability for Minnesota incorporating factors like recent team performance, roster composition, home-field advantage considerations, and head-to-head matchup dynamics. The probability will shift based on injury reports, weather conditions, and any significant roster changes between now and game day. The game itself will resolve all uncertainty when it's played, making pre-game developments and official team announcements the primary drivers of probability movement until kickoff.

### Key factors

- Green Bay's current season win-loss record and recent performance trajectory compared to Minnesota's
- Injury status of key players on both teams, particularly quarterbacks and defensive starters
- Home-field advantage factors, including whether the game is played in Green Bay or Minnesota
- Head-to-head historical matchup data and recent divisional performance between the two teams
- Vegas betting line movement and professional oddsmaker assessment of the matchup

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflgame

## License

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