# Will any player record 6+ passing touchdowns in any individual game during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Any player to record 2+ defensive interceptions in a game leads at 21%, runner-up 11% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflgamespecials
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.308Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-18

## Headline

- Leader: Any player to record 2+ defensive interceptions in a game at 21%
- Runner-up: Any player to record 4+ sacks in a game at 11%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any player to record 2+ defensive interceptions in a game | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-2-defensive-interceptions-i-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-dint2 |
| Any player to record 4+ sacks in a game | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-4-sacks-in-any-individual-g-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-sack4 |
| Any player to record 475+ passing yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-475-passing-yards-in-any-in-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-py475 |
| Any player to record 500+ passing yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-500-passing-yards-in-any-in-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-py500 |
| Any player to record 525+ passing yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-525-passing-yards-in-any-in-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-py525 |
| Any player to record 225+ rushing yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-225-rushing-yards-in-any-in-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-225ry |
| Any player to record 250+ rushing yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-250-rushing-yards-in-any-in-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-ry250 |
| Any player to record 275+ rushing yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-275-rushing-yards-in-any-in-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-ry275 |
| Any player to record 300+ rushing yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-300-rushing-yards-in-any-in-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-ry300 |
| Any player to record 250+ receiving yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-250-receiving-yards-in-any-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-rcy250 |
| Any player to record 275+ receiving yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-275-receiving-yards-in-any-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-rcy275 |
| Any player to record 300+ receiving yards in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-300-receiving-yards-in-any-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-rcy300 |
| Any player to record 3+ defensive interceptions in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-3-defensive-interceptions-i-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-dint3 |
| Any player to record 15+ receptions in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-15-receptions-in-any-indivi-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-rec15 |
| Any player to record 17+ receptions in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-17-receptions-in-any-indivi-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-rec17 |
| Any player to record 20+ receptions in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-20-receptions-in-any-indivi-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-rec20 |
| Any player to record 250+ passing yards in a single quarter | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-250-passing-yards-in-a-sing-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-qpy250 |
| Any player to record 150+ rushing yards in a single quarter | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-150-rushing-yards-in-a-sing-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-qry150 |
| Any player to record 150+ receiving yards in a single quarter | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-150-receiving-yards-in-a-si-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-qrey150 |
| Any player to record 5+ sacks in a game | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-player-record-5-sacks-in-any-individual-g-kalshi-kxnflgamespecials-27-sack5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Any player to record 2+ defensive interceptions in a game | Any player to record 4+ sacks in a game | Any player to record 475+ passing yards in a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 5 | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 19 | 11 | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 21 | 11 | 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | 21 | 11 | 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | 21 | 11 | 3 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · Any player to record 2+ defensive interceptions in a game +12pp 7→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Any player to record 4+ sacks in a game +9pp 2→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether any NFL player will throw 6 or more passing touchdowns in a single game during the 2026-27 regular season, with the market currently pricing this at 11 cents, suggesting roughly an 11% probability. The low odds reflect the statistical rarity of such performances—historically, 6+ TD passing games occur in fewer than one per season across the entire league. The probability hinges on two main drivers: quarterback talent and offensive scheme evolution, particularly whether teams increasingly feature pass-heavy systems that create high-volume TD opportunities. The biggest uncertainty resolver will be the opening weeks of the 2026 season in September, when we'll observe actual game performances and whether any quarterback quickly approaches or exceeds this threshold. Any unusual rule changes favoring offense or emergence of a record-setting QB would shift expectations upward.

### Key factors

- Historical frequency: 6+ TD passing games occur roughly once per 16-team season or less often, providing a baseline for how rare this outcome is
- QB talent concentration: outcomes depend heavily on a small number of elite QBs with MVP-caliber arms and deep passing schemes—neither predictable in advance
- Offensive system design: teams that employ high-volume pass plays with four-receiver sets or no-look concepts increase the likelihood of any player hitting this mark
- Injury dynamics: the presence or absence of key pass-catchers and defenses facing unexpectedly weak secondaries in specific matchups can enable outlier performances
- Resolution timing: the contract resolves after the final regular-season game in early January 2027, creating a full 17-week observation window for the event to occur

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflgamespecials
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflgamespecials

## License

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