# Will New York J record more wins than Las Vegas in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflh2hwins
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:21:00.162Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $54

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 34¢ | −15pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-record-more-wins-than-philadelphia-in-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27bufphi-buf |
| Chicago | 30¢ | −5pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-record-more-wins-than-cincinnati-in-t-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27chicin-chi |
| Philadelphia | 31¢ | −6pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-record-more-wins-than-buffalo-in-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27bufphi-phi |
| Tampa Bay | 40¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tampa-bay-record-more-wins-than-pittsburgh-in-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27tbpit-tb |
| Pittsburgh | 50¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pittsburgh-record-more-wins-than-tampa-bay-in-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27tbpit-pit |
| Seattle | 45¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-record-more-wins-than-los-angeles-r-i-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27sealar-sea |
| Los Angeles R | 45¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-record-more-wins-than-seattle-i-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27sealar-lar |
| New York J | 49¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-j-record-more-wins-than-las-vegas-in-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27nyjlv-nyj |
| Las Vegas | 52¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-las-vegas-record-more-wins-than-new-york-j-in-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27nyjlv-lv |
| Kansas City | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-record-more-wins-than-new-england-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27kcne-kc |
| New England | 38¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-record-more-wins-than-kansas-city-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27kcne-ne |
| Jacksonville | 63¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacksonville-record-more-wins-than-dallas-in-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27jacdal-jac |
| Dallas | 59¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-record-more-wins-than-jacksonville-in-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27jacdal-dal |
| Houston | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-record-more-wins-than-denver-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27houden-hou |
| Denver | 42¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-record-more-wins-than-houston-in-the-2-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27houden-den |
| Green Bay | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-record-more-wins-than-detroit-in-th-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27gbdet-gb |
| Detroit | 55¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-record-more-wins-than-green-bay-in-th-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27gbdet-det |
| Cincinnati | 65¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-record-more-wins-than-chicago-in-t-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27chicin-cin |
| Baltimore | 70¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-record-more-wins-than-los-angeles-c-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27ballac-bal |
| Los Angeles C | 44¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-c-record-more-wins-than-baltimore-kalshi-kxnflh2hwins-27ballac-lac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 60 |
| 2026-09-07 | 46 |
| 2026-09-12 | 46 |
| 2026-09-19 | 46 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Los Angeles C −23pp 44→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Jacksonville +22pp 41→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Buffalo +19pp 44→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Buffalo −15pp 63→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Baltimore +14pp 56→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates that bettors currently view Las Vegas as more likely to win more regular-season games than New York in the 2026-27 NFL season. The 28% figure reflects expectations about relative team strength, roster composition, and coaching quality entering the season. Key drivers of this probability include the current perceived quality gap between the two franchises based on recent performance, offseason roster moves, and draft acquisitions. The most significant uncertainty resolver will be the start of the 2026-27 regular season in September 2026, when actual win-loss records begin to accumulate. Until then, the probability may shift based on injury reports, preseason performance, and any major trades or coaching changes.

### Key factors

- Las Vegas's recent playoff history and current roster depth compared to New York's recent performance trajectory
- Offseason roster moves, free agency signings, and draft picks for both teams between now and September 2026
- Injury status of key players for each team entering the 2026-27 regular season
- Head coaching stability and staff changes that could impact team performance
- Preseason game outcomes and performance metrics from August-September 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflh2hwins
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflh2hwins

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