# Will the team with the last pick of the draft select a Linebacker with the last pick

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 18 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfllastpickpos
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:55.393Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shifters | 65¢ | +3pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-shifters-win-the-shifters-vs-team-heretics-le-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031100shftth-shft |
| Yes | 29¢ | +2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-play-in-team-advance-to-the-conference-fi-kalshi-kxnbapiadvance-26cf-1 |
| Man Utd | 92¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/which-epl-teams-will-qualify-for-the-champions-lea-kalshi-kxepltop4-26-mun |
| Ausar Thompson | 96¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ausar-thompson-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-pro-kalshi-kxnba1stteamdef-26-autho |
| 2 | 61¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t2 |
| May 2026 | 20¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-protest-within-the-united-states-that-draws-kalshi-kxmajorprotest-26may |
| A new location in Illinois | 74¢ | −1pp | $807 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-chicago-pro-football-team-relocate-to-a-n-kalshi-kxrelocationchi-28-ill |
| Florida | 46¢ | — | $595 | kalshi | /markets/will-florida-be-the-1-ranked-team-on-mens-college-kalshi-kxncaambaprank-26w1r1-fla |
| Cade Cunningham | 81¢ | +4pp | $552 | kalshi | /markets/will-cade-cunningham-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-al-kalshi-kxnba1stteam-26-ccun |
| Before Jul 2027 | 20¢ | +3pp | $472 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-last-of-us-season-3-be-released-befo-kalshi-kxtvseasonreleasethelastofus-27-jul |
| Jaylen Brown | 13¢ | −3pp | $401 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaylen-brown-be-selected-to-the-2025-26-all-p-kalshi-kxnba1stteam-26-jbro |
| Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires | 58¢ | −2pp | $291 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-auston-matthewss-next-team-stays-with-kalshi-kxnextteamnhl-26amat-tor |
| Yes | 57¢ | ±0 | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-winning-team-of-the-2026-pro-football-cha-kalshi-kxsuperbowlwhitehouse-26dec31 |
| Below 3% odds | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-team-with-below-3-odds-win-the-1-overall-pi-kalshi-kxnbalotteryodds-26-0-3 |
| Stays with Buffalo or Retires | 96¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-quarterback-josh-allens-next-team-kalshi-kxnextteamnfl-27jallen-buf |
| Between 9% and 13% odds | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-team-with-between-9-and-13-odds-win-the-1-o-kalshi-kxnbalotteryodds-26-9-13 |
| At least 14% odds | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-team-with-at-least-14-odds-win-the-1-overal-kalshi-kxnbalotteryodds-26-14-100 |
| Between 3% and 8% odds | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-team-with-between-3-and-8-odds-win-the-1-ov-kalshi-kxnbalotteryodds-26-3-8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 56 |
| 2026-04-19 | 46 |
| 2026-04-26 | 51 |
| 2026-05-03 | 48 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Cade Cunningham −24pp 69→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Cade Cunningham +14pp 45→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires −14pp 61→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires +12pp 47→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Cade Cunningham +11pp 59→70¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfllastpickpos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfllastpickpos

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.