# Will Arizona be the last undefeated team in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 12 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfllasttolose
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:47.748Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-18

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 8¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-the-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-bal |
| Buffalo | 4¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-buf |
| Green Bay | 4¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-the-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-gb |
| Chicago | 3¢ | — | $469 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-chi |
| Los Angeles R | 9¢ | — | $441 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-lar |
| Kansas City | 8¢ | — | $422 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-th-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-kc |
| Detroit | 8¢ | −2pp | $86 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-det |
| Dallas | 3¢ | ±0 | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-the-202-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-dal |
| Los Angeles C | 4¢ | — | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-c-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-lac |
| Philadelphia | 6¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-t-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-phi |
| Cincinnati | 6¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-the-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-cin |
| Houston | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-be-the-last-undefeated-team-in-the-20-kalshi-kxnfllasttolose-27-hou |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | 2 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Cincinnati −18pp 26→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Philadelphia −4pp 9→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Cincinnati −4pp 8→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 20% chance that Arizona finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season as the last remaining undefeated team. The probability reflects both Arizona's roster strength and the statistical rarity of any team going undefeated through a 17-game season. Key drivers include Arizona's defensive capabilities, injury rates to key players, and schedule strength relative to other contenders. Denver (28%) and Detroit (7%) are priced higher and lower respectively, suggesting market participants view Arizona as middle-tier among undefeated contenders. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the opening weeks of the season, as teams that suffer early losses are eliminated from consideration. By mid-season, the field typically narrows significantly, making September and October performance the most informative period for updating these probabilities.

### Key factors

- Arizona's win-loss record through Week 8 will largely determine their remaining probability, as undefeated teams rarely emerge past mid-season
- Injury status of Arizona's starting quarterback and top defensive players during the regular season will directly impact game outcomes
- Schedule difficulty comparison: Arizona's strength of schedule against Denver and Detroit's will influence relative probabilities across competing contracts
- Historical NFL data shows approximately 1-3 teams remain undefeated past Week 4, making 20% a relatively high single-team probability
- Trading volume on this contract has been minimal ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting limited market confidence or interest in establishing Arizona as distinct from other contenders

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nfllasttolose
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nfllasttolose

## License

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