# 2026-27 Championship Game Matchup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 14 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflmatchup
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:50.715Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-21

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $865

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati vs San Francisco: Cincinnati vs San Francisco | 18¢ | — | $263 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-cincinnati-vs-sa-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-cinsf |
| Buffalo vs Los Angeles R: Buffalo vs Los Angeles R | 5¢ | −2pp | $235 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-buffalo-vs-los-a-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-buflar |
| Kansas City vs Los Angeles R: Kansas City vs Los Angeles R | 4¢ | +1pp | $156 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-kansas-city-vs-l-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-kclar |
| Denver vs Los Angeles R: Denver vs Los Angeles R | 3¢ | +1pp | $116 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-denver-vs-los-an-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-denlar |
| Cincinnati vs Los Angeles R: Cincinnati vs Los Angeles R | 9¢ | +7pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-cincinnati-vs-lo-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-cinlar |
| Green Bay vs Los Angeles R: Green Bay vs Los Angeles R | 4¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-nfc-championship-matchup-green-bay-vs-los-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27nfc-gblar |
| Baltimore vs Dallas: Baltimore vs Dallas | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-baltimore-vs-dal-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-baldal |
| Buffalo vs Detroit: Buffalo vs Detroit | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-buffalo-vs-detro-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-bufdet |
| Buffalo vs Philadelphia: Buffalo vs Philadelphia | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-buffalo-vs-phila-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-bufphi |
| Buffalo vs Seattle: Buffalo vs Seattle | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-buffalo-vs-seatt-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-bufsea |
| Buffalo vs Washington: Buffalo vs Washington | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-buffalo-vs-washi-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-bufwas |
| Houston vs Green Bay: Houston vs Green Bay | 47¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-houston-vs-green-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-hougb |
| Houston vs Los Angeles R: Houston vs Los Angeles R | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-houston-vs-los-a-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-hoular |
| Houston vs Philadelphia: Houston vs Philadelphia | 44¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-27-championship-game-matchup-houston-vs-phila-kalshi-kxnflmatchup-27sb-houphi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | 4 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · Cincinnati vs Los Angeles R: Cincinnati vs Los Angeles R +7pp 2→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Kansas City vs Los Angeles R: Kansas City vs Los Angeles R +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Kansas City vs Los Angeles R: Kansas City vs Los Angeles R −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Green Bay vs Los Angeles R: Green Bay vs Los Angeles R +3pp 1→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Buffalo vs Detroit: Buffalo vs Detroit +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 39% probability represents the likelihood that two Los Angeles teams will face each other in the 2026-27 championship game. The market is pricing this outcome based on the current strength of Los Angeles teams relative to other AFC and NFC contenders. The probability would move higher if Los Angeles teams dominate their conferences through the regular season and playoffs, or lower if teams like Denver, San Francisco, Buffalo, or New Orleans emerge as stronger threats. The primary uncertainty will resolve through the 2026-27 NFL season and playoffs, concluding with the championship game scheduled for early 2027.

### Key factors

- Contract pricing shows 4¢ for LA vs LA versus 50¢ for Denver vs San Francisco, indicating the LA matchup is viewed as substantially less likely than other top scenarios
- Los Angeles Chargers and Rams would need to each win their respective conference championships, requiring them to outperform current AFC and NFC favorites
- Trading volume on the LA vs LA contract ($119 in 24h) is significantly higher than Buffalo vs LA ($5), suggesting more confidence in that matchup's relevance
- The NFC Championship contract between New Orleans and Seattle is priced at 95¢, indicating extremely low probability for that specific matchup
- Regular season performance from late 2026 through January 2027 playoffs will be the primary driver of movement in this probability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflmatchup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflmatchup

## License

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