# Will Lamar Jackson win the MVP

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 11 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflmvp
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.845Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-02-12

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 6¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-caleb-williams-win-the-mvp-caleb-williams-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-cwil |
| Justin Herbert | 8¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-herbert-win-the-mvp-justin-herbert-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-jher |
| Dak Prescott | 5¢ | ±0 | $992 | kalshi | /markets/will-dak-prescott-win-the-mvp-dak-prescott-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-dpre |
| Joe Burrow | 9¢ | ±0 | $960 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-burrow-win-the-mvp-joe-burrow-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-jbur |
| Jordan Love | 4¢ | — | $521 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-love-win-the-mvp-jordan-love-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-jlov |
| Jayden Daniels | 3¢ | — | $451 | kalshi | /markets/will-jayden-daniels-win-the-mvp-jayden-daniels-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-jdan |
| Drake Maye | 5¢ | ±0 | $330 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-maye-win-the-mvp-drake-maye-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-dmay |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4¢ | −1pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-trevor-lawrence-win-the-mvp-trevor-lawrence-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-tlar |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5¢ | −1pp | $87 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-win-the-mvp-patrick-mahomes-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-pmah |
| Josh Allen | 11¢ | +1pp | $79 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-allen-win-the-mvp-josh-allen-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-jall |
| Lamar Jackson | 10¢ | ±0 | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-lamar-jackson-win-the-mvp-lamar-jackson-kalshi-kxnflmvp-27-ljac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 7 |
| 2026-04-24 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 9 |
| 2026-05-08 | 9 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 5% probability reflects the current market assessment that Lamar Jackson has a minimal chance of winning the 2026 NFL MVP award. This low probability suggests the market expects other quarterbacks—particularly Joe Burrow at 8%—to have stronger seasons or more compelling narratives. MVP voting typically rewards statistical excellence combined with team success and media narrative; Jackson's chances would rise with exceptional passing efficiency, volume statistics, or significant team wins, and would fall if other elite performances emerge across the league. The primary catalyst determining this outcome will be the full 2026 NFL season performance from September through December, with the award announcement typically occurring in early 2027 during NFL awards presentations. Since we are currently in May 2026, substantial uncertainty remains about who will perform best across the entire season.

### Key factors

- Joe Burrow commands 8% probability compared to Jackson's 5%, suggesting market consensus favors Burrow's MVP chances based on current expectations or recent performance
- The MVP award typically goes to a player with top-5 league-wide statistics in key metrics (passing yards, touchdowns, QB rating, passer rating) combined with strong team record
- Jackson would need elite statistical production across the full 16-game season plus a compelling narrative advantage over other elite performers to overcome current market pricing
- Contract volumes and pricing differences across MVP candidates reflect available information about roster construction, preseason performance, and injury status as of May 2026
- The outcome depends entirely on aggregate performance data from the 2026 NFL regular season (September-December), making current probabilities highly provisional given the temporal distance

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflmvp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflmvp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.