# Will Dan Quinn be the next coach out in Pro Football

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 15 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnextcoachout
Updated: 2026-09-25T08:20:49.479Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-15

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt LaFleur | 32¢ | +18pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-lafleur-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foo-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-mlaf |
| Todd Bowles | 11¢ | −2pp | $346 | kalshi | /markets/will-todd-bowles-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foot-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-tbow |
| Dan Quinn | 18¢ | −1pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/will-dan-quinn-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-footba-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-dqui |
| DeMeco Ryans | 5¢ | +1pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/will-demeco-ryans-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foo-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-drya |
| Shane Steichen | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shane-steichen-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-f-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-sste |
| Aaron Glenn | 34¢ | +52pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-glenn-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foot-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-agle |
| Dan Campbell | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dan-campbell-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foo-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-dcam |
| Dave Canales | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dave-canales-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foo-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-dcan |
| Jeff Hafley | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeff-hafley-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foot-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-jhaf |
| Kevin O'Connell | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kevin-oconnell-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-f-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-koco |
| Mike LaFleur | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-lafleur-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foo-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-mila |
| Mike McCarthy | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-mccarthy-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-fo-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-mmcc |
| Nick Sirianni | 60¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nick-sirianni-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-fo-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-nsir |
| Robert Saleh | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-saleh-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foo-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-rsal |
| Todd Monken | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-todd-monken-be-the-next-coach-out-in-pro-foot-kalshi-kxnflnextcoachout-27i1-tmon |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | 26 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-25 · Matt LaFleur +18pp 5→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Todd Bowles +18pp 20→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Matt LaFleur −8pp 10→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Dan Quinn +6pp 10→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Matt LaFleur +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 6% probability reflects the market's assessment that Dan Quinn will be the first NFL head coach to be fired or resign. Quinn is currently in his first season as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys after spending 2024 as their defensive coordinator. The low probability relative to peers like Aaron Glenn (11%) suggests market confidence in Quinn's position despite any early-season performance questions. Key factors include the Cowboys' win-loss record through the season, organizational stability under owner Jerry Jones, and whether mid-season performance triggers front office changes. The main uncertainty resolver will be the Cowboys' performance through Week 8-9 and any public statements from ownership about coaching decisions. Coaches with established organizational support and multi-year contracts typically face lower removal probability early in their tenure.

### Key factors

- Dallas Cowboys' win-loss record and playoff positioning through mid-season; teams significantly underperforming expectations increase coaching change likelihood
- Public statements from Cowboys owner Jerry Jones regarding Quinn's job security and the team's direction
- Quinn's performance metrics compared to peer coaches (Aaron Glenn at 11%, Dave Canales at 8%) suggesting relative confidence in his role
- Dallas roster quality and injury status affecting on-field performance and pressure on coaching staff
- Contract terms and financial commitment to Quinn; longer guaranteed deals reduce firing likelihood

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnextcoachout
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflnextcoachout

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.