# Vita Vea's next team before Dec 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 5 contracts — refreshed 35 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnextteam
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:54.239Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta: Atlanta | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-levis-next-team-before-dec-1-2026-atlanta-atl-kalshi-kxnflnextteam-26wlevis8-atl |
| Arizona: Arizona | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/vita-veas-next-team-before-dec-1-2026-arizona-ariz-kalshi-kxnflnextteam-26vvea50-ari |
| Chicago: Chicago | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/vita-veas-next-team-before-dec-1-2026-chicago-chic-kalshi-kxnflnextteam-26vvea50-chi |
| Denver: Denver | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/vita-veas-next-team-before-dec-1-2026-denver-denve-kalshi-kxnflnextteam-26vvea50-den |
| Jacksonville: Jacksonville | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/vita-veas-next-team-before-dec-1-2026-jacksonville-kalshi-kxnflnextteam-26vvea50-jac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | 5 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that defensive tackle Vita Vea signs with a new team by December 1, 2026. Currently at 20% for Tampa Bay as the leader, with the New York Jets close behind at 19%, the market suggests Vea is more likely to remain with his current team or pursue free agency later than to change teams imminently. The probability hinges on whether Vea's contract negotiations with Tampa Bay reach a conclusion before year-end, and whether competing teams make aggressive pursuit efforts. The NFL's 2026 free agency period and any contract extension announcements will be the primary drivers of movement. With roughly four months until the deadline, uncertainty remains high, as teams may wait until the offseason to make significant moves, and Vea's decision-making timeline remains unclear.

### Key factors

- Vita Vea's current contract status and extension negotiations with Tampa Bay will directly determine if he remains or becomes available
- The New York Jets' interest level and salary cap flexibility could influence whether they make a competitive offer before December 1
- Free agency patterns in the NFL typically accelerate in the offseason rather than mid-year, which would delay any team change past the December deadline
- Injury status or performance metrics for Vea during the remainder of the 2026 season could affect both his market value and negotiation leverage
- Teams' playoff positioning and defensive needs in November could create urgency to pursue defensive help before the deadline

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nflnextteam
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nflnextteam

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.